Central banks grapple with uncertainty in 2025's foggy economic landscape

By Marc Jones and Sumanta Sen

LONDON (Reuters) - The first central bank interest rate moves of 2025 suggest it will be a year where some important heavyweights, in both the developed and emerging parts of the world, travel in different directions for a while.

Last year was the biggest coordinated global rate cut round in 15 years as inflation got reined in, but this one has kicked off with policymakers navigating some very foggy conditions.

Among the G10 central banks which oversee the world's most heavily-traded currencies, three of the four that met last month - Sweden, the ECB and Canada - continued their cutting cycles, while Japan, where rates hardly ever go up, hiked for the second time in less than a year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and Norway's Norges Bank both sat on their hands, while Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland didn't hold meetings. The Bank of England has just cut rates this week.

It all comes as Donald Trump returned to the White House with a bang, launching trade tariff salvos and plans to shred multilateralism and regulation.

The Bank of Canada specifically warned of the dangers for its economy and even the Fed wants to wait and see what comes out of the Oval Office.

EMERGING PATTERN

In the 18 emerging markets that Reuters samples, there were three cuts and one hike in January, although six on the list didn't meet.

Turkey slashed another 250 basis points off its rates to leave them at a still eye-watering 45%, while South Africa and Indonesia opted for minimal quarter-point moves.

Meanwhile, Brazil, which has not been having an easy time due to worries about its debt load, ratcheted up its rates by 100 bps for the second meeting running and pencilled another in for March.

The bank's rate-setting committee, known as Copom, unanimously chose to raise borrowing costs to 13.25% at its first meeting with new central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo in charge.

China's central bank kept its powder dry as it waited for the tariff hit from Washington.

Going back to the major economies, with the exception of Japan, most countries are expected to keep bringing down borrowing costs this year.

Those in Europe, Canada and Australia look set to tumble the most, especially if Trump's trade war turns ugly.

(Reporting by Marc Jones, graphics by Sumanta Sen; Editing by Sharon Singleton)