Dollar near one-week high as hot U.S. inflation fans Fed hike bets, peace talks stall - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Dollar near one-week high as hot U.S. inflation fans Fed hike bets, peace talks stall

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 13, 2026

3 min read

· Last updated: May 13, 2026

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Dollar Climbs Near One-Week High Amid U.S. Inflation and Fed Rate Hike Bets

Market Overview and Currency Movements

By Jiaxing Li

Dollar Strengthens on Inflation Data

HONG KONG, May 13 (Reuters) - The dollar held near a one-week high on Wednesday as risk sentiment soured after a hot U.S. inflation reading sent Treasury yields higher, and oil inched up on renewed Middle East uncertainty. 

Major Currency Pairs and Dollar Index

The euro stood at $1.1735 and the sterling traded at $1.3532, both down roughly 0.05% against the greenback in early Asia trades. 

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was steady at 98.335, near the strongest level in a week. 

Expert Insights on Risk Sentiment

"I think it's a less positive risk tone, effectively. The U.S. dollar has been tracking risk sentiment very closely throughout the war," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank. 

A lack of positive momentum in the equity market is also a culprit, he added. 

Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months through April, the biggest year-on-year increase since May 2023, as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran pushed prices higher.  

Middle East Uncertainty and Oil Prices

Meanwhile, hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East dwindled after U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" after Tehran rejected a U.S. proposal to end the war and stuck to a list of demands that Trump called "garbage." 

Oil prices settled higher, with Brent crude futures last traded near $108 a barrel. 

Interest Rates and Market Expectations

The U.S. two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, rose to 3.9956%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes climbed to 4.4688%. 

Markets have largely priced out any chance of a rate cut from the Fed this year, while expectations for a hike of at least 25 basis points at the central bank's December meeting rose to 35%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.  

Other Major Currencies

The Australian dollar fetched $0.72365, and the New Zealand dollar traded at $0.5954, both largely flat. 

The Japanese yen was largely steady at 157.715, after a sudden move stronger on Tuesday had stoked speculation of a "rate check" by authorities, which is often a precursor to currency intervention.

Yen Intervention and Official Comments

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and Japan believe that excess volatility in the currency market is undesirable, comments that were seen as offering some support to Tokyo's recent round of intervention to prop up the yen.

Chinese Yuan and Upcoming U.S.-China Talks

Elsewhere, China's yuan traded around 6.79 per dollar,  near its strongest since February 2023, as markets looked ahead to this week's meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

(Reporting by Jiaxing Li; Editing by John Mair)

Key Takeaways

  • April CPI rose 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, with energy costs accounting for over 40% of the monthly increase and gasoline up ~5.4% MoM (axios.com).
  • Markets have nearly ruled out any Fed rate cuts in 2026, with futures nodding to a December 25‑bp cut at best—the June meeting is seen as a hold (≈96% odds), and year-end cuts only modestly priced (investify.vn).
  • Brent crude hovered near $107–108 amid stalled Middle East ceasefire hopes, while U.S. 2‑year and 10‑year Treasury yields climbed to near 4.00% and 4.47%, strengthening the dollar index around 98.34—the strongest in a week (za.investing.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the U.S. dollar near a one-week high?
The U.S. dollar is near a one-week high due to strong inflation data, higher Treasury yields, and risk aversion stemming from Middle East uncertainty.
How did U.S. inflation data affect expectations of Fed rate changes?
Hot U.S. inflation data increased market expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike, while the chance of rate cuts was priced out.
What are the current levels of major currency pairs?
The euro is at $1.1735, sterling at $1.3532, Australian dollar at $0.72365, and yen is steady at 157.715 per dollar.
How have Middle East tensions impacted oil and financial markets?
Renewed Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher and have contributed to a more cautious risk sentiment across markets.
What did U.S. and Japanese authorities say about recent yen volatility?
U.S. and Japanese officials said excess volatility is undesirable, supporting recent interventions to stabilize the yen.

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