Analysis-Companies tone down price hike talk as tariff fog clears

By Shivansh Tiwary, Savyata Mishra and Arpan Varghese

(Reuters) -Fewer global companies signaled price hikes in the third quarter, pointing to a change in tack as U.S. trade deals facilitate clearer financial planning and firms seek to limit risks of losing sales, according to company statements and earnings calls reviewed by Reuters.

Results from Walmart <WMT.N> capped the unofficial final week of quarterly earnings lined with other familiar U.S. retail names, including Target <TGT.N>,  Home Depot <HD.N> and Lowe's <LOW.N>.

They revealed different strategies to tackle a spending slowdown by cash-strapped consumers, including discounts heading into the holidays, after the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown delayed federal benefits and halted economic data releases.

Reuters has tracked corporate comments on tariffs since early in the year. At least 28 companies have explicitly said they were raising prices or had already done so during earnings disclosures since October 16.

By comparison, Reuters counted about 51 companies disclosing price increases in the second quarter and nearly 90 during the first quarter. To be sure, this list is not exhaustive and counts only key public companies that have clearly spelled out pricing action in relation to tariffs, and does not cover general pricing changes.

PRICE HIKES MENTIONS FALL

Data from market intelligence platform AlphaSense showed mentions of price hikes in the context of tariffs by global companies dropped by about 68% between the first-quarter earnings reporting period, between April 15 and July 15, and the third quarter starting October 16.

Heading into the third quarter, companies had flagged more than $35 billion in costs from U.S. tariffs, but many lowered their initial forecasts as the fog that paralyzed business started to clear with new deals reducing exposure to President Donald Trump's trade war, which hiked U.S. import tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s.

"We have seen less (tariff) impact than what we thought we would have expected early in the year," Walmart incoming CEO John Furner said on an earnings call last week, when the company focused on its price cuts entering the holiday shopping season.

"Earlier this year, investors wanted to know what each company’s tariff strategy was. Now we’re just looking at how they’re executing on that plan,"  said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. 

"Few companies wanted to stick their necks out with price hikes."

SOME RETAILERS ABSORB TARIFFS

Walmart and others described a sharp divide between spending by affluent and lower-income consumers.

"Companies have not been passing through the increases" to navigate consumer price sensitivity, said Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, pointing to Target, which is cutting prices on 3,000 food, baby and household essentials this holiday season, up from about 2,000 items in 2024. 

Fast-food chains including McDonald's, Domino's Pizza and Taco Bell owner Yum Brands have rolled out cheaper meal bundles and limited-time offers to counter a slowdown in demand, mainly among lower-income households. 

"For the back half, we are anticipating a more cautious consumer as the full impact of tariffs and price increases will be felt here in the U.S.," Stefano Caroti, CEO of footwear and apparel company Deckers Brands, said during a post-earnings call. 

Tariff-related price hikes are also creating a new level of competition. Mr. Coffee seller Newell Brands raised prices, but competitors did not follow, CEO Chris Peterson said in October. "The pricing that we put in the market turned out to position us as being uncompetitive in those businesses that are primarily sourced businesses."

While October inflation data has been delayed, September numbers released last month showed consumer inflation was restrained by a slowdown in the pace of price increases for airfares, hotel and motel rooms, as well as cheaper used cars and trucks.

Industrials led the charge in the frequency of pricing actions in the second and third quarters, followed closely by the consumer sector, in contrast to the first quarter, when consumer companies not only took top spot but were well ahead of any other sector, according to data from the Reuters tracker. 

Many of these companies described pressure from suppliers.

The trajectory remains uneven. Some firms anticipate additional fourth-quarter pass-throughs, while others see prices steadying. 

Many companies rely on mitigation strategies, early purchases of inventory, sourcing shifts, and competitive discipline, warning that guidance depends on tariffs not escalating further. 

Rockwell Automation expects a couple of points' price increases for fiscal 2026, with 1% from the underlying price and 1% from tariff adjustments. "We're not using tariffs as an opportunity for us to grab some profit," said Rockwell CFO Christian Rothe. 

Understanding the tariff "end game" is essential, said Dave Evans, CEO of Fictiv, a global contract manufacturer. 

"We’re seeing some costs passed through to customers, but the majority of companies are either absorbing the impact themselves or sharing the burden with their suppliers. Many organizations are holding off on major price increases until there’s more clarity on long-term tariff strategy; they want to avoid multiple adjustments if policies shift again."

(Reporting by Shivansh Tiwary, Savyata Mishra, Shashwat Chauhan and Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; editing by Peter Henderson and Rod Nickel)