Central Bank Hawkish Turn Spooks Bond Markets, Tech Remains Resilient
Market Reactions and Economic Outlook
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Shift
Jerome Powell's parting gift as Fed Chair was a proper hawkish tilt - the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady but in the most divided vote since 1992 three regional presidents dissented over phrasing that pointed to an "easing bias", saying such language was no longer appropriate given elevated inflation and the massive uncertainty about oil prices as a result of the U.S.-backed war against Iran.
Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions
With Brent oil hitting a four-year high of $125 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, it is not unusual among central banks - looking at you BoC - to sound the inflation alarm. Media reports say U.S. President Donald Trump will be briefed today on new military options against Iran as peace talks seem to have stalled.
Powell's Future and Fed Dynamics
Powell also confirmed he would stay on as a Fed governor until the outlook was clearer, essentially taking the place of Governor Stephen Miran, a Trump loyalist who voted for a rate cut on Wednesday. Many analysts suspect Powell could join the hawks to try and ward off further attempts by Trump and his new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to lower interest rates.
Bond Markets and Rate Expectations
Fed developments and the jump in oil sent Treasury yields spiking as traders priced out any chance of rate cuts this year. They now see a roughly even chance of a rate hike from the Fed by April 2027. Quite a reversal from before the war began at the end of February.
Tech Sector Resilience
Equities, however, were in their own AI-generated world. Nasdaq futures rose around 0.4%, helped by generally positive first-quarter earnings from four tech giants. Google parent Alphabet soared 7% in extended trade after smashing forecasts. Microsoft and Amazon.com delivered as well, but Meta Platforms disappointed on concerns over its AI spending.
Apple in Focus
All eyes are now on Apple to keep the good times rolling later today.
Asian Markets Surge
South Korea's KOSPI was set for a 32% surge in April, the biggest monthly rise since 1998, and Taiwan stocks for a 24.5% gain over the month, the biggest since 2001. Who says there's a war going on?
European Market Concerns
The gulf between macro fears and micro euphoria sets up a weak European open, with pan-region stock futures down 0.4%. Investors are nervously eyeing the European Central Bank and Bank of England, both due to announce decisions later, fearing they might turn yet more hawkish.
Upcoming Economic Data
March inflation data from Europe and the U.S. are also due and will reveal the initial impact from the Iran war. A spike in headline inflation is almost certain on higher petrol prices, but everyone knows the worst is yet to come.
Key Developments to Watch
- Advance estimates for euro zone, U.S. GDP for Q1
- EU inflation for March
- U.S. PCE inflation and spending for March
- ECB and BOE decisions
- Apple Q1 earnings
Editorial Note
(Editing by Kate Mayberry)
