UK watchdog's early budget release steals Reeves' thunder, stirs markets frenzy

By Andy Bruce

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's fiscal watchdog apologised for publishing details of Rachel Reeves' budget early on Wednesday, a blunder that stole the finance minister's chance to reset the political narrative after months of leaks and speculation about her plans.

The unprecedented error by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) sparked anger and mockery in the House of Commons and a frenzy on trading room floors. A senior economist at a top broker in London said he was in "a state of shock" when reading the headlines, which pushed the pound and UK government bond prices higher.

The early release, which was first reported by Reuters, meant the key announcements from the budget - on taxes, economic growth and individual policy changes - were all reported an hour before Reeves stood up to deliver her budget to parliament.

Asked later at a press conference if he would resign, OBR chair Richard Hughes said he would abide by the findings of an investigation.

REEVES LEFT SCRIBBLING NOTES AS ERROR EMERGED

One Labour lawmaker said Reeves had found out about the mistake as she walked into parliament for the prime minister's weekly question-and-answer session which preceded the budget.

During Prime Minister's Questions she scribbled notes with one of her Treasury ministers, Torsten Bell.

"This is deeply disappointing and a serious error on their (the OBR's) part," Reeves said.

The OBR said a link to its November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook had gone live on its website early.

The document, which is usually published after the finance minister's speech has ended, was uploaded to the OBR website and available to download on an unprotected link. The link was not advertised on the website.

"Everyone was frantically going through every tiny bit of detail - well, actually, at the beginning everyone was looking where it came from in the first place to see if it's credible," said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC in London.

Opposition Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said the error made Britain look like a "shambolic, laughing stock" and said Reeves should consider resigning.

"If she doesn't resign for breaking her promises (on the economy), she should sure as hell should go for this," she said.

As Reeves started to deliver her budget - which once again hiked taxes - she was taunted by opposition lawmakers, with one shouting: "We've already read it. Surprise us!"

ERROR ADDED TO SENSE OF INCOMPETENCE AROUND THE GOVERNMENT

Labour lawmakers shook their heads at the early release, with one saying it had done little to change the impression of disorder and confusion around a government that is floundering in opinion polls. "It adds to everything about the narrative," the lawmaker said.

The leak came after months of speculation about what would be in the budget and government U-turns, which business leaders said had already undermined the government's credibility.

"To me it more summed up the entire budget process we've been through, with leak after leak, and backtracking... and then just release it before she even talked. I was like, well, that's icing on the cake," said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, which manages $1.5 trillion in assets.

Britain's budget is a high-profile piece of political theatre compared with similar announcements in other large economies, delivered to a rowdy parliament while traders, business leaders and Britons track the announcements as they are delivered.

Details of the 2013 budget were accidentally published online before the announcement after a newspaper broke an embargo. In 1947, Labour finance minister Hugh Dalton resigned after divulging details of his budget to a newspaper journalist before his statement to parliament.

The OBR quickly apologised for its mistake.

"A link to our Economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed," the OBR said on X.

"We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened."

It said it would report to the Treasury and the Treasury parliamentary committee on how the early release had occurred.

"I was just coming back from a meeting when I heard some of the conversations from my team and thought it was a joke," Vanguard's head of international rates Ales Koutny said of the early OBR release.

"Everything was turned upside down and we had very little time to react. But that's part of the job, reacting under pressure."

(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Additional reporting by William James, Lucy Raitano, Elizabeth Piper, Andrew Macaskill, Alistair Smout, Dhara Ranasinghe and Yoruk Bahceli; Writing by Kate Holton; Editing by Toby Chopra and Catherine Evans)