Finance
Aircraft lessor Avolon expects wide-body shortage to last into 2030s
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 23, 2026
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Quick Summary
Avolon forecasts a shortage of wide-body aircraft lasting into the 2030s, affecting airline capacity and driven by markets like India and the UAE.
Avolon Predicts Long-Term Shortage of Wide-Body Aircraft Through 2030s
Long-Term Outlook for Aircraft Market
DUBLIN, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Airlines face a shortage of the industry’s large long-haul jets into the next decade, aircraft leasing company Avolon said on Friday.
Avolon, one of the three Irish leasing companies that together own and lease out about a sixth of the world's passenger aircraft, said in its annual outlook report that the shortage of narrow-body jets was slightly less acute but would also last until the end of the decade.
"We're forecasting the narrow-body market to be undersupplied through the end of the decade, into the 2030s and perhaps a longer period of time for the wide-body market," Avolon Chief Risk Officer Jim Morrison said ahead of a major gathering of aviation financiers in Dublin next week.
Impact of COVID-19 on Deliveries
WIDE-BODY DELIVERIES ARE HALF PRE-COVID LEVELS
About 4,000 fewer jets than planned will be built this decade because of the COVID-19 pandemic and other production disruptions, Avolon estimates.
The delivery of 1,183 narrow-body jets last year was just short of the pre-COVID peak, but the 174 wide-body aircraft deliveries were about half of pre-pandemic levels, according to Cirium data cited by Avolon.
Key Markets Driving Demand
"The structural undersupply of wide-bodies will last longer than the market anticipates and will be felt more acutely as international markets continue to drive traffic growth," Avolon's report said, referring to non-U.S. markets.
While China has driven demand in recent years, the key markets for aircraft in the coming years will be India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the report said.
Economic Factors Affecting Airlines
The shortage has constrained airline capacity, allowing carriers to raise fares, and also led to bottlenecks in engine repairs and left hundreds of planes grounded waiting for maintenance.
A fourth consecutive year of profitability, boosted by lower fuel prices, is set to put the industry in a good position to weather heightened global uncertainty and recession risk, the report said.
"If there was a period of lower economic growth, for whatever reason, we actually believe the industry is well positioned to withstand that," said Avolon CEO Andy Cronin.
(Reporting by Conor Humphries and Tim HepherEditing by David Goodman)
Key Takeaways
- •Avolon predicts a long-term shortage of wide-body aircraft.
- •Narrow-body aircraft shortage expected until the end of the decade.
- •COVID-19 has significantly impacted aircraft deliveries.
- •Key markets driving demand include India and the UAE.
- •Airline capacity constraints have led to higher fares.
Frequently Asked Questions about Aircraft lessor Avolon expects wide-body shortage to last into 2030s
1What is a wide-body aircraft?
A wide-body aircraft is a large airplane designed for long-haul flights, characterized by two aisles and a larger passenger capacity compared to narrow-body aircraft.
2What is a narrow-body aircraft?
A narrow-body aircraft is a smaller airplane typically used for short to medium-haul flights, featuring a single aisle and fewer passenger seats than wide-body aircraft.
3What is aircraft leasing?
Aircraft leasing is a financial arrangement where airlines rent aircraft from leasing companies instead of purchasing them outright, allowing for flexibility and reduced capital expenditure.
4What is the impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry?
COVID-19 significantly disrupted the aviation industry, leading to reduced aircraft deliveries and a long-term shortage of both narrow-body and wide-body aircraft.
5What are key markets driving demand for aircraft?
Key markets driving demand for aircraft include India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, which are expected to see increased air traffic growth.
