ABN Amro Expects Loan Growth to Withstand ECB Rate Hikes in 2024
ABN Amro’s Outlook Amid ECB Monetary Policy Changes
May 13 (Reuters) - ABN Amro does not expect likely European Central Bank rate rises to slow lending growth or push borrowers into private credit, CEO Marguerite Bérard said on a media call on Wednesday.
ECB Rate Expectations for 2024 and Beyond
The Dutch lender expects the ECB to raise rates by a total of 50 basis points this year before cutting them in 2027, Bérard said.
Economic Forecasts and Inflation Concerns
ABN Amro has also lowered its 2027 gross domestic product forecasts for the Netherlands and the euro zone as inflation concerns rise and the economic outlook weakens, she said.
Geopolitical Factors and Forward Curve Assumptions
"This differs somewhat from the current forward curve, which assumes a more lasting impact from ECB monetary policy,” she said, adding that she expected the geopolitical situation would normalise next year.
Corporate and Private Lending Trends
The bank said its corporate banking loans continued growing in the first quarter, having added 1.5 billion euros to the portfolio.
Growth of Private Lending and Private Debt Funds
Private lending and private debt funds have grown quickly as companies seek faster, tailored financing.
Market Expansion Since the 2008 Financial Crisis
The market expanded after the 2008 financial crisis, offering an alternative to bank loans for private equity firms buying medium-sized companies through long-term debt with simpler terms and higher returns.
(Reporting by Mateusz Rabiega and Jakob Van Calster; Editing by Matt Scuffham)
