Dollar Rises on Middle East Tension, US Inflation, Yen Slides in Forex Markets
Forex Market Movements Amid Geopolitical and Economic Developments
By Lucy Raitano and Jiaxing Li
HONG KONG, May 13 (Reuters) - The dollar held near a one-week high on Wednesday on renewed uncertainty in the Middle East and as traders digested a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation print and closely watched the yen.
The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.171675 and sterling traded 0.2% lower at $1.3524 <GBP=D3>.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was unchanged at $0.72410 and the New Zealand dollar traded down 0.3% at $0.59345 .
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.1% at 98.449, its highest level since May 5.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose 0.2% and stayed firmly above the $100 mark, with Brent crude futures last trading at $108 a barrel.
Middle East Tensions and Market Impact
Hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East have dwindled after President Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" after Tehran rejected a U.S. proposal to end the war.
Trump said on Tuesday that he does not think he will need Beijing's help to end the war with Iran ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
Expert Commentary on Geopolitical Drivers
"What's going on in the Strait of Hormuz... that's the main driver in the background," said Tommy von Brömsen, FX strategist at Handelsbanken in Stockholm.
"The longer this goes on the more central banks are going to find themselves in a more difficult situation."
US Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook
U.S. CPI Hot
The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.8% in the 12 months through April, the biggest year-on-year increase since May 2023, as the oil shock triggered by the war pushed prices higher.
Bond Yields and Rate Expectations
Yields on the U.S. two-year note, which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and the benchmark 10-year note hovered near seven-week highs; they last traded at 3.9854% and 4.4629%, respectively.
Markets have largely priced out any chance of a rate cut from the Fed this year, while expectations for a hike of at least 25 basis points at the central bank's December meeting rose to 35%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
Fed Leadership and Policy Uncertainty
Commerzbank FX analysts said the extent of the jump in CPI was surprising and interesting ahead of Fed chair Jerome Powell's term ending on Friday. On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as Federal Reserve governor, an important step towards him succeeding Powell.
"The big question in the coming months will be whether Warsh can gather enough allies within the FOMC to push through early rate cuts," the Commerzbank analysts said in a report.
Traders are awaiting U.S. producer price data due later in the session for a further read on the U.S. economy.
Yen in Focus: Intervention and Market Response
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 157.77 per dollar. A sudden move stronger on Tuesday had stoked speculation of a "rate check" by authorities, which is often a precursor to a currency intervention.
Intervention Effectiveness and Official Statements
Japan's recent foreign exchange intervention may have kept the yen from sliding below the 160-per-dollar mark but it is unlikely to have a lasting effect in propping up the sagging currency, former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and Japan believe that excess volatility in the currency market is undesirable, comments that were seen as offering some support to Tokyo's recent round of intervention to prop up the yen.
"My concern is that I don't think intervention alone is going to be sufficient to strengthen the yen at this point," said Idanna Appio, portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan said that Bessent did not meet with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda during his visit to Tokyo.
Other Currency Movements
China's yuan traded around 6.79 per dollar, near its strongest level since February 2023, ahead of Trump's trip to Beijing.
(Reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong and Lucy Raitano in London; additional reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft in Paris and Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Editing by John Mair, Thomas Derpinghaus and Nick Zieminski)
