Headlines
Trump's scrap copper quotas too small to shift the market
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on July 31, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 22, 2026
Quick Summary
Trump's proposed copper scrap quotas aim to boost domestic production but are unlikely to impact the market significantly, as US consumption is already high.
Trump's Proposed Copper Scrap Quotas Likely to Have Minimal Market Impact
By Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Pratima Desai
BEIJING/LONDON (Reuters) -Proposed limits on U.S. scrap copper exports which aim to reduce reliance on overseas production of the metal, are unlikely to have much impact, analysts say, with exports already below the planned cap.
Copper is a vital material for the power generation and transmission industries, for artificial intelligence and data centres and for electric vehicles.
In new tariff announcements on Wednesday, the White House said it would require 25% of high-quality copper scrap produced in the U.S., the world's largest scrap exporter, to be sold at home, in a move to boost domestic production of refined copper using scrap as a raw material.
The executive order did not define high-quality or specify when the domestic use requirement would begin, though a separate report from the Secretary of Commerce said 2027.
Trade flows were unlikely to change as a result, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday, in part because "high quality scrap is probably kept domestically already."
"If we're looking at the copper scrap market as a whole, there's nothing to see here because the US is already consuming upwards of 40% of copper scrap in its own metal production," said Duncan Hobbs, Research Director at commodity merchant Concord Resources.
The United States exported $4.5 billion of copper scrap last year, around half going to China. However exports to its largest customer have dropped sharply since the on-off trade war, muting any potential impact from Trump's latest proposal.
Exports of scrap copper to China in May were worth just $7.4 million, down from $248 million a year earlier, according to U.S. customs data.
The share of China's scrap copper imports from the US by volume fell to 1% in June from 20.8% in January, Chinese customs data showed.
(Reporting by Lewis Jackson;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)
Key Takeaways
- •Trump proposes copper scrap export quotas.
- •Analysts predict minimal market impact.
- •US already consumes 40% of its copper scrap.
- •Exports to China have significantly decreased.
- •No clear start date for domestic use requirement.
Frequently Asked Questions about Trump's scrap copper quotas too small to shift the market
1What are the proposed limits on U.S. scrap copper exports?
The White House announced that 25% of high-quality copper scrap produced in the U.S. must be sold domestically, but specifics on high-quality definitions and implementation dates were not provided.
2How much copper scrap did the U.S. export last year?
The United States exported $4.5 billion of copper scrap last year, with approximately half of that amount going to China.
3What impact will the new copper quotas have on trade flows?
Analysts from Goldman Sachs believe that trade flows are unlikely to change significantly because high-quality scrap is likely already consumed domestically.
4How have U.S. copper scrap exports to China changed recently?
Exports of scrap copper to China fell dramatically, with values dropping from $248 million a year earlier to just $7.4 million in May.
5What percentage of copper scrap imports from the U.S. does China currently hold?
China's share of scrap copper imports from the U.S. by volume decreased to 1% in June, down from 20.8% in January.
