Trump's Diplomatic Brinkmanship With Iran Stalls, Risks Market Turmoil
By Matt Spetalnick and Humeyra Pamuk
Stalemate in U.S.-Iran Relations and Global Economic Implications
WASHINGTON, May 16 (Reuters) - During his first year back in office, U.S. President Donald Trump’s blustery negotiating style won him concessions from countries on issues ranging from tariffs to armed conflict.
Breakdown of Coercive Diplomacy
But with Iran that same brand of coercive diplomacy, marked by public threats, insults and ultimatums, seems to have hit a wall and may be undermining his own efforts to end a war that has shaken the global economy.
With the two sides deadlocked, Trump has signaled growing frustration over the 11-week-old crisis but has shown little inclination to soften his harsh diplomatic approach toward Iran's leaders.
That does not bode well for a quick negotiated settlement, fueling fears that the current standoff – and its unprecedented shock to world energy supplies - could drag on indefinitely with periodic bouts of brinkmanship.
Obstacles to Negotiation
Among the main obstacles, analysts say, is the Iranian rulers' mindset, including their need to save face with their own domestic audience, despite U.S.-Israeli strikes having killed many top leaders and heavily degraded the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities.
Though Iran has essentially maintained a chokehold on the vital Strait of Hormuz, giving it considerable leverage, Trump has persisted with a diplomatic playbook characterized by maximalist demands, unpredictability, mixed signals and scathing language.
Victory Narratives and Diplomatic Deadlock
Even more significant, analysts say, is Trump’s insistence on emerging from the conflict framing it as an absolute victory for the U.S. – even if this doesn't match the reality on the ground - while the Iranians must accept total defeat, which they are not likely to do.
“That inevitably gets in the way of reaching a reasonable deal because no government, not just Iran’s, can afford to be viewed as having capitulated,” said Rob Malley, a former Iran negotiator in the Obama and Biden administrations.
Domestic Pressures and Political Calculations
The continuing impasse with Iran comes as Trump faces domestic pressure over high U.S. gasoline prices and his own low approval ratings after he embarked on an unpopular war ahead of November’s midterm elections. His Republican Party is struggling to maintain control of Congress.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales defended Trump's diplomatic approach based on what she said was a "proven track record of achieving good deals" and insisted that the Iranians were showing increasing "desperation" for an agreement.
"President Trump is a master negotiator who always sets the right tone," she said.
Escalating Rhetoric and Global Risks
APOCALYPTIC THREAT
His most chilling words came last month when he threatened in a social media post to wipe out Iran’s civilization unless it reached a deal – a message that administration officials told the Wall Street Journal was improvisational and not vetted as part of a national security strategy.
Trump ultimately backed down and agreed to a truce. But since his profanity-laced Easter Sunday threat to destroy Iran’s bridges and power grid, he has repeated that warning, including to reporters on Air Force One returning from China on Friday.
And last week, Trump told reporters they would know that the current ceasefire had collapsed if they saw “one big glow coming out of Iran,” which some interpreted as a threat to deploy nuclear weapons, something he has insisted he would never do.
Trump has reserved some of his toughest words for Iran’s leaders, calling them “crazy bastards,” “lunatics” and “thugs”, and Tehran has responded with its own extensive campaign taunting him with graphic memes and social media posts.
He has repeatedly insisted that Iran has been completely crushed despite evidence to the contrary, said they were “begging” for a deal – only to have the Iranians deny it – while oscillating between demands for “unconditional surrender” and calls for a negotiated settlement. The Iranians, however, have claimed it as a win to have simply survived the military onslaught, showing they can exact a big economic price.
There has been no effort inside the White House to persuade Trump to show greater restraint in his messaging on Iran, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
While opinion polls show his MAGA movement has mostly stood with him, some prominent figures who have supported him in the past have spoken out against the war and criticized his more extreme threats.
Communication Tactics and Their Consequences
SOCIAL MEDIA AFTER MIDNIGHT
Some of Trump’s harshest statements, often delivered on his Truth Social platform after midnight, have come at critical junctures, such as last month when he abruptly announced a blockade of Iran’s ports and it then retaliated, imperiling the already-fragile ceasefire.
On Monday, Trump dismissed the latest peace proposal from Iranian officials as a “piece of garbage."
“The lack of strategic patience and inconsistency of the president’s rhetoric undercuts whatever message he wants to send,” said Dennis Ross, a former senior Middle East adviser in Democratic and Republican administrations.
During Trump’s visit to Beijing, he mostly refrained from tough verbal attacks on Iran while preoccupied with important relations with China, Tehran’s ally and oil customer.
But some analysts suggested it would be best for Trump, who often speaks publicly and gives impromptu phone interviews to reporters, to tone down his rhetoric for good if he is serious about finding an off-ramp in the conflict.
“He talks too much,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters last month during a visit to Turkey.
The Role of Unpredictability in Negotiations
Trump – a former New York real estate developer who touts himself as a master deal maker – has long insisted that being unpredictable is a negotiating tactic aimed at keeping opponents off-balance.
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