Swedish inflation picks up in June, puts more rate cuts in doubt

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) -Swedish headline consumer prices rose 0.5% in June from the previous month and were up 2.9% from the same month a year earlier, flash figures from the statistics office (SCB) showed on Monday.

Stripping out volatile energy prices, a measure the Riksbank is looking at closely, inflation was 3.3% compared to June 2024. The statistics office does not provide details in flash figures.

June inflation easily topped forecasts by the central bank, which targets 2% headline inflation, and those of economists, making further interest rate cuts less likely for the remainder of the year.

"Our forecast is that the Riksbank will stay on hold at 2.00%, and today's inflation reading supports that view," Nordea said in a note. "We also expect domestic demand to recover, reducing the need for rate cuts."

The economy has stalled this year and the Riksbank had been growing increasingly confident that the overall trend is for price pressures to ease, though uncertainty is high due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies and a volatile currency.

Cutting the policy rate to 2.00% on June 18, the Riksbank had said the inflation outlook meant it could cut the policy rate again this year to boost growth.

Until now, policy setters have believed temporary factors have held up inflation since the start of the year.

The Riksbank forecast 2.4% headline inflation in June compared to a year earlier. Excluding volatile energy prices, it estimated inflation at 2.9%.

Analysts had expected headline inflation at 2.5% on an annual basis, and at 3.0% excluding energy.

Headline inflation was 2.3% on an annual basis in May. Excluding volatile energy prices, inflation was 2.5%.

Final inflation figures are due on July 14.

The Riksbank will announce its next policy decision on August 20.

(Reporting by Simon Johnson; Editing by Anna Ringstrom and Rachna Uppal)