By Anastasiia Kozlova and SimonFerdinand Eibach

(Reuters) - Swiss logistics group Kuehne+Nagel posted higher first-quarter profitability and maintained its 2025 outlook on Thursday, helped by market share gains and effective cost management.

Analysts predict a volatile year for the shipping and logistics sectors, however, as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff offensive and the resulting trade and market turmoil threaten to cause supply chain disruptions.

K+N's first-quarter earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased 7% year-on-year, reaching 402 million Swiss francs ($486.33 million). That beat market expectations of a 3% EBIT increase.

Its sea and air logistics businesses recorded first-quarter EBIT increases of 7% and 23% respectively.

The company also confirmed its recurring EBIT guidance for the year, which was announced last month.

Bernstein analyst Alex Irving expressed concern over the outlook's continued feasibility, however, noting that it was based on February foreign exchange rates and the Swiss franc had since strengthened 9% against the dollar.

The freight forwarder, which operates in more than 100 countries, told Reuters it would not comment on foreign exchange impacts.

Kuehne+Nagel's shares were up 0.8% as of 0826 GMT.

U.S. TARIFF IMPACTS

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, shipping and logistics firms have faced a succession of supply chain crises, including backed-up ports in the United States and China, worker strikes, and militant attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

Trump's tariffs on U.S. imports and retaliatory levies from trade partners have further disrupted supply chains.

Lower trading volumes and overcapacity will likely exert strong downward pressure on prices later in 2025, said Gian Marco Werro, an analyst from Zuercher Kantonalbank.

But the 90-day tariff pause may trigger a frontloading rush by sea and air in Q2, which could increase complexity and freight prices to K+N's benefit, Werro added.

"It is still early in the second quarter, and one should not extrapolate when data is limited. But in this case, we do see evidence of this trend continuing," K+N added, commenting on the frontloading effect ahead of the U.S. tariffs.

K+N shares had already been in decline due to a subdued EBIT guidance for 2025 before hitting an almost five-year low in early April, as Trump's tariffs on U.S. imports rocked global markets.

($1 = 0.8266 Swiss francs)

(Reporting by Anastasiia Kozlova and Simon Ferdinand Eibach in Gdansk; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Kim Coghill and Joe Bavier)