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U.S. recession no longer likely after trade truce, says Barclays
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on May 16, 2025
1 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on May 16, 2025
1 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Barclays revises U.S. growth forecasts, citing reduced recession risk due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions.
LONDON (Reuters) -Barclays no longer expects the U.S. economy to slip into a recession later this year and has revised up its growth forecasts, given signs of a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, the bank said in a note released late Thursday.
Barclays said it now expects the U.S. economy to grow 0.5% this year and 1.6% next year, up from previous forecasts of -0.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
Reduced uncertainty and an improved economic backdrop also led Barclays to lift its euro area growth expectations. It now forecasts flat economic growth this year, compared to a 0.2% contraction previously.
Barclays noted it still expects a technical euro zone recession in the second half of 2025, but with growth contracting by less than previously forecast.
"Overall, we remain downbeat about the growth outlook in the euro area because uncertainty remains very elevated and the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. remain at a technical level and there are no signs of progress," Barclays said in a note.
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Amanda Cooper)
The article discusses Barclays' revised economic forecasts, indicating a reduced likelihood of a U.S. recession due to easing trade tensions.
Barclays now expects the U.S. economy to grow 0.5% in 2023, up from a previous forecast of -0.3%.
Barclays has improved its euro area growth expectations, now forecasting flat growth instead of a contraction.
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