Boeing trims projection for 20-year jet demand

By Dan Catchpole

(Reuters) -Boeing expects global demand for air travel to increase by more than 40% by 2030, driving the need for thousands of new jetliners in the next few years, according to its 20-year demand forecast for commercial airliners released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow. 

The company expects demand for 43,600 new airliners through 2044. That is essentially the same as last year's edition, which projected demand for 43,975 new deliveries through 2043.

European rival Airbus last week revised up its own 20-year commercial demand forecast by 2% to 43,420 jets, saying the air transport industry was expected to ride out current trade tensions.

Boeing's delivery projection includes nearly 33,300 single-aisle airliners, just over 7,800 widebody jets, 955 factory-built freighters and 1,545 regional jets. Single-aisle jets include the 737 MAX and competitor Airbus's A320neo family and make up roughly four of every five deliveries now. 

While Boeing's deliveries projection is roughly the same, it pared down its 20-year forecast for passenger traffic growth from 4.7% in last year's outlook to 4.2% this year. Likewise, it lowered its global economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.3%, cargo traffic growth from 4.1% to 3.7% and fleet growth from 3.2% to 3.1%. 

Despite the lower projection for cargo traffic, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst told reporters in a briefing that trade volatility is not expected to significantly shift long-term demand.   

"I think we need to point back to the perspective that the last 20, 40, 60 years have given us in terms of the value of air cargo, and the fact that it's roughly a 4% growth market through all this time," he said. 

Since COVID-19, air travel demand has bounced back, but airplane production is only half or even less than what it was before the pandemic, resulting in a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 airliners, he said. 

Both Airbus and Boeing have struggled to return aircraft production to pre-pandemic levels. Boeing has been dealing with production safety concerns following a 2024 mid-air blowout of a panel on a nearly new Alaska Airlines 737 MAX. As a result, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration capped 737 production at 38 airplanes a month. 

Boeing has significantly improved production quality in recent months, but the crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner on Thursday put it back in crisis mode. CEO Kelly Ortberg cancelled his plans to attend the Paris Airshow in order to assist with the crash investigation. 

Global air travel is projected to increase by more than 40% by 2030, compared to the pre-pandemic high, according to the forecast. 

During the next 20 years, Boeing expects about 51% of demand for new aircraft to come from growth rather than replacing older airplanes.

China and South/Southeast Asia, which includes India, are expected to account for half of that additional capacity, according to the outlook. North America and Eurasia account for more than half of projected deliveries for replacing older aircraft.

China makes up an estimated 10% of Boeing's existing order backlog. The country paused taking delivery of new Boeing aircraft as China and the U.S. clashed over tariffs. However, deliveries are expected to resume this month, Ortberg said in May during an investors conference.    

(Reporting by Dan Catchpole in Seattle; Editing by Stephen Coates)