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    Home > Finance > Swiss inflation turns negative, raising likelihood of negative interest rates
    Finance

    Swiss inflation turns negative, raising likelihood of negative interest rates

    Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®

    Posted on June 3, 2025

    3 min read

    Last updated: January 23, 2026

    Swiss inflation turns negative, raising likelihood of negative interest rates - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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    Tags:interest ratesmonetary policyfinancial marketseconomic growth

    Quick Summary

    Swiss inflation turned negative in May, increasing the likelihood of negative interest rates by the Swiss National Bank.

    Swiss Inflation Drops Below Zero, Increasing Chance of Negative Rates

    By John Revill

    ZURICH (Reuters) -Swiss inflation turned negative in May, marking the first decline in consumer prices for more than four years and adding pressure on the Swiss National Bank to cut its interest rate steeply later this month.

    Consumer prices fell by 0.1% in May compared with a year earlier, according to data from the Federal Statistics Office on Tuesday, the lowest reading since March 2021 when the Swiss economy was hit by the COVID-19 crisis.

    An interest rate cut by the SNB at its next meeting on June 19 is seen as a certainty by the market, which gives a 69% probability the central bank will cut rates from 0.25% at present to 0%.

    Markets now give a 31% probability the SNB will cut its key interest rate to -0.25%, returning Switzerland to an era of negative interest rates which were in place from late 2014 to 2022.

    The Swiss National Bank declined to comment on the data, which meant inflation fell outside its 0-2% target range.

    Chairman Martin Schlegel last week said the central bank would consider the mid-term development of inflation rather than any month's data, although he has also previously said the SNB would not shy away from bringing negative rates back.

    ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier, who expects a 25 basis point cut in June, and a similar cut in September, said the central bank would likely be "very annoyed" by the decline in inflation.

    She said negative inflation was caused largely by the strong Swiss franc, which reduced the price of imported goods by 2.4%, as well as a big drop in energy prices.

    "I think that rates will indeed go back into negative territory," said de Montpellier. She said the SNB would have to act to maintain expectations of inflation within its 0-2% target range.

    "I think the SNB will want to stop at -0.25% for the rate ... but the risk is that the situation will deteriorate even further if the franc becomes even more expensive and oil prices continue to fall and that it will have to go even further negative."

    Economists from UBS and EFG Bank also forecast a 25 basis point cut in June.

    Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at business association economiesuisse, expects a single cut of 25 basis points in June or September and then the SNB to halt.

    "If oil prices stay around the current level, we won't have any additional effects that would lead to further price reductions over the coming months. Domestic inflation is still positive," said Minsch.

    "So the central bank has a bit more leeway to wait before going into negative rates."

    (Reporting by John RevillEditing by Tomasz Janowski)

    Key Takeaways

    • •Swiss inflation dropped below zero in May.
    • •Pressure mounts on the Swiss National Bank for a rate cut.
    • •Markets predict a 69% chance of a rate cut to 0%.
    • •The strong Swiss franc contributes to negative inflation.
    • •Economists expect a 25 basis point cut in June.

    Frequently Asked Questions about Swiss inflation turns negative, raising likelihood of negative interest rates

    1What recent trend has Swiss inflation experienced?

    Swiss inflation turned negative in May, marking the first decline in consumer prices for over four years.

    2What is the current interest rate set by the Swiss National Bank?

    The current interest rate set by the Swiss National Bank is 0.25%.

    3What factors contributed to the decline in Swiss inflation?

    The decline in inflation was largely due to a strong Swiss franc, which reduced the price of imported goods, and a significant drop in energy prices.

    4What do economists predict regarding future interest rate cuts?

    Economists expect a 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the SNB's next meeting in June, with some forecasting a similar cut in September.

    5How does the Swiss National Bank view the recent inflation data?

    The Swiss National Bank has declined to comment on the recent inflation data, which fell outside its target range of 0-2%.

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