Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on July 7, 2025
1 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
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Romanian inflation is predicted to rise, with interest rates likely on hold. Economic growth is expected to be moderate in the coming years.
BUCHAREST (Reuters) - The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts puts Romanian inflation at 5.6% year-on-year at the end of June, up from May's 5.45%.
Analysts expect inflation at 6.2% by the end of 2025, above the central bank's 4.6% forecast, driven by higher value added tax and other levies which will be enforced from August. The bank targets inflation at 1.5%-3.5% and will release new forecasts for this year and next in August.
All polled analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 6.50% at its next meeting on July 8. The benchmark rate is seen at 6.25% at end-2025 although the risk that policymakers would stay on hold this year had risen, driven by the expected tax hikes.
Analysts expect the economy to grow 1.3% and 2.2% overall in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
(Reporting by Luiza Ilie)
The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts puts Romanian inflation at 5.6% year-on-year at the end of June, up from May's 5.45%.
All polled analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 6.50% at its next meeting on July 8.
Analysts expect inflation to reach 6.2% by the end of 2025, which is above the central bank's forecast of 4.6%.
Analysts expect the economy to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and 2.2% overall in 2026.
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