Romanian macroeconomic indicators and interest rate forecasts

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts puts Romanian inflation at 5.6% year-on-year at the end of June, up from May's 5.45%.

Analysts expect inflation at 6.2% by the end of 2025, above the central bank's 4.6% forecast, driven by higher value added tax and other levies which will be enforced from August. The bank targets inflation at 1.5%-3.5% and will release new forecasts for this year and next in August.

All polled analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 6.50% at its next meeting on July 8. The benchmark rate is seen at 6.25% at end-2025 although the risk that policymakers would stay on hold this year had risen, driven by the expected tax hikes.

Analysts expect the economy to grow 1.3% and 2.2% overall in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

(Reporting by Luiza Ilie)