Novo Nordisk shares fall as obesity pipeline faces investor scrutiny

By Maggie Fick and Stine Jacobsen

LONDON/COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -Shares in Novo Nordisk fell as much as 3.5% on Monday after detailed trial data on its experimental obesity drug CagriSema fuelled investor concerns about its competitiveness against rival Eli Lilly's pipeline.

Novo on Sunday said full results from two late-stage trials of CagriSema - one in people with obesity or overweight, the other in overweight type 2 diabetics - showed mainly mild-to-moderate side effects and positive outcomes on blood sugar.

But, as analysts had predicted ahead of the data release, investors remained sceptical.

Jefferies called the updates "incremental" and flagged concerns over tolerability, as CagriSema caused slightly more nausea than both Novo's blockbuster obesity injection Wegovy and Lilly's rival therapy Zepbound.

The drug is not expected to launch until early 2027, "a long time interval for investors", Novo and Lilly shareholder Markus Manns told Reuters.

Manns said sentiment in Lilly had been buoyed by data it also presented at the annual meeting of the American Diabetes Association in Chicago over the weekend that showed no safety issues in a mid-stage trial of its oral weight-loss candidate orforglipron in people with diabetes.

Late-stage obesity data for orforglipron are due in the third quarter.

"Novo’s status has clearly changed from being the obesity leader to a fast follower," Manns said.

CagriSema is key to Novo's efforts to compete with Lilly in the obesity market, which analysts estimate could top $150 billion annually by 2030.

Novo had billed CagriSema as a more potent successor to Wegovy, but late-stage headline trial results published in December 2024 fell short of market hopes, showing 22.7% average weight loss over 68 weeks - below the company's 25% target.

That sent shares plunging, wiping as much as $125 billion off its market value.

Last month, Novo ousted its CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen amid concerns it was losing its first-mover advantage in the obesity drug race. One of the reasons cited for Jorgensen's removal was the share price decline.

Shares, which have slumped some 55% since a June 2024 peak, are up about 8% since his departure was announced on May 16.

(Reporting by Maggie Fick and Stine Jacobsen; Editing by Jan Harvey)