Stocks hit fresh record on trade optimism, dollar falls

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Global stocks hit an intraday record on Monday on hopes U.S. trade negotiations with key partners would continue to progress, while the dollar declined and was set for its worst first-half performance in more than five decades. 

Canada halted its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms just hours before it was due to take effect, in an effort to advance stalled trade negotiations with Washington.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump will resume trade negotiations in an attempt to agree on a deal by July 21, in an extension from Trump's original July 9 deadline for "reciprocal" tariffs. 

The July 9 deadline still holds for other countries, although officials have suggested most deals could be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday.

On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advised that the U.S. could move back to the tariff levels on April 2, when Trump announced a wide array of steep duties against countries around the globe, and that the decision for any extension to negotiations would be up to Trump. 

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks rose modestly with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record levels for a second straight session, led by a gain of about 1% in technology, while consumer discretionary was the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. 

"Animal spirits seem to have taken hold here," said Roy Behren, co-president of Westchester Capital Management in New York. "It is also quite common for the last couple of days of a quarter to see strength because of the window dressing."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 rose 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to 6,204.95 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73.

Investors will eye a flurry of labor market data in the holiday-shortened trading week, culminating in Thursday's government payrolls report. The report is scheduled for release a day early, while the U.S. stock market will have a shortened session on Thursday and be closed on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4. 

Some Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the strength of the labor market gives the central bank the leeway to hold off on cutting interest rates until they can get a better sense of the impact Trump's tariffs will have on inflation. 

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Monday that the economy has yet to face the full impact of Trump’s trade tariffs and said he still sees one cut from the Fed this year, while Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said he sees no sign of stagflation but there is the possibility of both unemployment and inflation getting worse simultaneously.

Investors were also monitoring the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, which Republicans will try to pass on Monday.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 3.88 points, or 0.42%, to 918.67 and was on track for its third straight session of gains after hitting an intraday record of 919.47.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.42%, but secured its second straight quarterly advance despite dropping more than 1% in June.  

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.41% to 96.80, with the euro up 0.55% at $1.1783.

The greenback has struggled throughout the year, partly due to growing expectations the Fed may become more aggressive in cutting interest rates next year when Powell is replaced as Chair. The dollar is down 10.5% for the first half, which would mark its biggest drop over the first six months of the year since 1973, when the U.S. shifted to a free-floating exchange rate. 

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.47% to 143.97 while sterling edged up 0.08% to $1.3725.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 4.9 basis points to 4.234%. 

U.S. crude settled down 0.63% to $65.11 a barrel and Brent settled at $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% on the day.

(Additional reporting by Sabrina Valle in New York, Sruthi Shankar and Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Lisa Shumaker)