Global 3C warming would hurt UK economy much more than previously predicted, OBR says
Global 3C warming would hurt UK economy much more than previously predicted, OBR says
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on July 8, 2025
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on July 8, 2025
MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) -A rise in global temperatures to almost 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels would likely hurt Britain's economy by much more than previously assumed, the Office for Budget Responsibility projected on Tuesday.
"Taken together, in the 3 degrees central scenario the combined fiscal impacts of climate damage and mitigation could add 74% of GDP to government debt by the early 2070s, relative to our latest long-term projection," the OBR said in its annual Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report.
A United Nations report published in October last year said current climate policies would result in global warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
While the OBR reduced its estimate for the cost of transitioning to a net zero economy to 21% of economic output, from 30% in 2021, it bumped up its estimates of the hit to output from climate change.
The scenario of an almost 3 degrees increase in global temperatures would reduce the level of GDP by 8% in the early 2070s, the OBR said, compared with a previous estimate of 5%.
It would also increase primary government borrowing - which excludes debt interest payments - by around 2% of GDP, compared with a previous estimate of 1.3%.
(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by William Schomberg and Susan Fenton)
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