Russian central bank expected to keep key rate on hold at 21%: Reuters poll

By Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian central bank will keep its benchmark rate on hold at 21% at a board meeting on April 25, all 25 analysts who took part in a Reuters poll predicted on Monday, as global economic turbulence adds to concerns about the state of the Russian economy.

The government maintained its growth estimate for 2025 at 2.5%, a new set of forecasts showed on Monday. The government said it does not see a big risk of a global recession, but cut its estimate for the price of oil, Russia's main export, by 17%.

The central bank hiked its key rate to the highest level since early 2000s last October as it struggles to fight inflation. The rouble, which has surged by 40% to the dollar this year, has helped the regulator, making imported goods cheaper.

However, lower oil prices as a result of a falling global demand and the risks of a global recession after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed trade tariffs could make the rouble reverse its gains by the middle of the year.

"The danger of an impending recession could force the regulator to sharply ease monetary policy, but for now, judging by its rhetoric, the state of the economy does not cause it any concerns," said analysts from Aigenis investment firm.

At the meeting the central bank will also review its forecasts, which for now see the economy growing only by 1% to 2% in 2025, while analysts will look out for any comments on trade wars and the global recession risks.

Some analysts suggested that the central bank will lower its forecasts for oil prices to bring them more into line with the government's.

The central bank's governor Elvira Nabiullina called the trade wars "a tectonic shift" and a "significant risk" saying that it was too early to judge how they will impact the global economy.

"Pro-inflationary factors remain on the agenda, and the risks of escalating imported inflation are holding the central bank back from hastily lowering the interest rate," Solid brokerage analysts said.

(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Toby Chopra)