What is the main topic?

The article discusses the Russian central bank's decision to maintain its key interest rate at 21% amid global economic challenges.

Why is the rate being held at 21%?

The rate is held due to global economic turbulence and concerns about inflation and trade wars.

How do trade wars impact the Russian economy?

Trade wars are considered a significant risk, potentially affecting global demand and economic stability.

Editorial & Advertiser disclosure

Global Banking & Finance Review® is an online platform offering news, analysis, and opinion on the latest trends, developments, and innovations in the banking and finance industry worldwide. The platform covers a diverse range of topics, including banking, insurance, investment, wealth management, fintech, and regulatory issues. The website publishes news, press releases, opinion and advertorials on various financial organizations, products and services which are commissioned from various Companies, Organizations, PR agencies, Bloggers etc. These commissioned articles are commercial in nature. This is not to be considered as financial advice and should be considered only for information purposes. It does not reflect the views or opinion of our website and is not to be considered an endorsement or a recommendation. We cannot guarantee the accuracy or applicability of any information provided with respect to your individual or personal circumstances. Please seek Professional advice from a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. We link to various third-party websites, affiliate sales networks, and to our advertising partners websites. When you view or click on certain links available on our articles, our partners may compensate us for displaying the content to you or make a purchase or fill a form. This will not incur any additional charges to you. To make things simpler for you to identity or distinguish advertised or sponsored articles or links, you may consider all articles or links hosted on our site as a commercial article placement. We will not be responsible for any loss you may suffer as a result of any omission or inaccuracy on the website.

Home > Finance > Russian central bank expected to keep key rate on hold at 21%: Reuters poll

Finance

Russian central bank expected to keep key rate on hold at 21%: Reuters poll

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®

Posted on April 21, 2025

2 min read

Last updated: January 24, 2026

Russian central bank expected to keep key rate on hold at 21%: Reuters poll - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review

Russian Central Bank Likely to Hold Key Rate at 21%: Analysts

By Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian central bank will keep its benchmark rate on hold at 21% at a board meeting on April 25, all 25 analysts who took part in a Reuters poll predicted on Monday, as global economic turbulence adds to concerns about the state of the Russian economy.

The government maintained its growth estimate for 2025 at 2.5%, a new set of forecasts showed on Monday. The government said it does not see a big risk of a global recession, but cut its estimate for the price of oil, Russia's main export, by 17%.

The central bank hiked its key rate to the highest level since early 2000s last October as it struggles to fight inflation. The rouble, which has surged by 40% to the dollar this year, has helped the regulator, making imported goods cheaper.

However, lower oil prices as a result of a falling global demand and the risks of a global recession after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed trade tariffs could make the rouble reverse its gains by the middle of the year.

"The danger of an impending recession could force the regulator to sharply ease monetary policy, but for now, judging by its rhetoric, the state of the economy does not cause it any concerns," said analysts from Aigenis investment firm.

At the meeting the central bank will also review its forecasts, which for now see the economy growing only by 1% to 2% in 2025, while analysts will look out for any comments on trade wars and the global recession risks.

Some analysts suggested that the central bank will lower its forecasts for oil prices to bring them more into line with the government's.

The central bank's governor Elvira Nabiullina called the trade wars "a tectonic shift" and a "significant risk" saying that it was too early to judge how they will impact the global economy.

"Pro-inflationary factors remain on the agenda, and the risks of escalating imported inflation are holding the central bank back from hastily lowering the interest rate," Solid brokerage analysts said.

(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Russian central bank expected to keep key rate on hold at 21%: Reuters poll

Quick Summary

Russian Central Bank Likely to Hold Key Rate at 21%: Analysts

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions about Russian central bank expected to keep key rate on hold at 21%: Reuters poll