Finance
Bank of Portugal ups 2025 growth forecast on stronger private consumption
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 7, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 7, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
The Bank of Portugal has raised its 2025 growth forecast to 1.9%, driven by stronger private consumption, while export growth slows.
LISBON (Reuters) -The Bank of Portugal on Tuesday raised the economic growth outlook for this year to 1.9% from 1.6% it predicted in June, citing stronger-than-expected private consumption while exports growth was slowing down.
It expects gross domestic product, which expanded 2.1% in 2024, to grow by 2.2% next year and 1.7% in 2027, the same as previously forecast.
In its quarterly economic bulletin, the central bank saidthat the upward revision of this year's GDP forecast reflected the most recent national accounts data and "higher projected growth for the second half of the year".
It said that private consumption, which traditionally represents more than 60% of GDP, is now seen growing 3.3% this year after 3% in 2024, boosted by rising disposable income of households thanks to higher wages and lower taxes on labour income and pensions.
Conversely, exports growth was revised lower, to 1.1% in 2025, "due to trade tensions, uncertainty, and the appreciation of the euro", after increasing by 3.1% last year.
The economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter from the previous three months when it shrank 0.4%. It also grew 1.9% from a year earlier.
The government expects the economy to grow by around 2% this year.
(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; editing by Andrei Khalip)
Economic growth refers to an increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, typically measured as the percentage increase in real GDP.
Private consumption is the total value of all goods and services consumed by households. It is a major component of GDP and reflects the spending habits of individuals and families.
Exports are goods and services produced in one country and sold to another. They are an important part of a country's economy and contribute to GDP.
Disposable income is the amount of money that households have available for spending and saving after income taxes have been deducted. It is a key indicator of economic well-being.
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