JPMorgan expects dealmaking fees to drop, keeps CEO succession plans steady

By Nupur Anand and Niket Nishant

NEW YORK (Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase shares slid after the bank told investors its investment banking fees would decline this quarter and CEO Jamie Dimon said his succession plans were unchanged.

Investment banking fees in the second quarter could fall by a mid-teens percentage versus the previous year as economic uncertainty stalls dealmaking, said Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of JPMorgan's commercial and investment bank.

Meanwhile, trading revenue is expected to grow by a mid-to-high single digit percentage, he added.

"The evolving tariff environment, combined with the preexisting geopolitical tensions, adds significant uncertainty into the economic outlook," Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told shareholders and analysts gathered at the bank's New York headquarters for a wide-ranging annual presentation.

"The combination of inflation and large fiscal deficits may constrain the available policy responses in ways that further increase the risk."

Dimon, 69, has run the biggest U.S. lender for more than 19 years, outlasting many other CEOs. He declined to give a time frame for his eventual retirement after saying at last year's gathering that it was "not five years anymore."

"I think the chance of inflation going up and stagflation is a little bit higher than other people think," Dimon said as he underscored geopolitical risks and warned against complacency.

Net interest income -- the difference between what the bank pays on deposits and earns from interest payments -- could rise by $1 billion this year, Barnum said.

Still, it was too early to change the full-year NII outlook of $94.5 billion, Barnum said. The bank has repeatedly warned that its elevated NII was unsustainable.

Finances are holding up well for consumers and companies, executives said, despite concerns sparked by the tariffs President Donald Trump unveiled last month.

The bank, which has the largest market share of U.S. consumer accounts and houses 11.3% of retail deposits, is a reliable gauge of consumer health.

Although trade negotiations have helped ease some jitters in the last few days, corporate executives remain wary about the economic outlook, with Dimon warning last week that a recession could not be ruled out.

"Volatility has moderated ... But we're operating in a very uncertain market," Rohrbaugh said.

Shares fell about 1%.

M&A, AI OPPORTUNITIES

Barnum said the bank is open to acquisitions, or "inorganic growth," at a time when it is flush with cash, but will be "appropriately cautious" with any acquisitions because of the challenges of integrating businesses.

Since purchasing assets of failed lender First Republic Bank in 2023, JPMorgan has been relatively quiet on acquisitions.

The bank's capital was "impressive," Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers wrote in a note. It has "significant flexibility for both defensive and offensive actions," he said.

Separately, the lender also emphasized the role of artificial intelligence in boosting efficiency. JPMorgan has a technology budget of $18 billion for 2025.

"The operations team (in consumer banking) is at the tip of the spear on using and leveraging new AI tools and capabilities," said Marianne Lake, CEO of consumer and community banking.

"And based upon what we know today, we expect headcount will trend down by about 10% over the next five years or so."

Large financial institutions are finding ways to use AI to cut costs and increase productivity, which could dramatically reshape their workforces.

CONSUMER GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

The bank estimated its net charge-off rate, or the percentage of credit card debt that will not be repaid, to be between 3.6% and 3.9% for 2026.

That is higher than the 3.6% net charge-off rate the bank is expecting for 2025.

It reiterated a growth goal to reach 15% of the country’s consumer deposits. It also aspires to provide credit cards for 20% of the nation’s spending, expanding from the current 17.3%.

Lake also said she is looking to double the wealth management business for the mass market but did not provide a timeline.

"We remain highly impressed with the company's position of strength across the consumer bank," TD Cowen analysts wrote in a note. "The business updates all seem favorable and supportive of continued momentum."

(Reporting by Nupur Anand in New York and Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Lananh Nguyen, Anil D'Silva and Nick Zieminski)