Equities lose earlier gains and US bond yields rise with inflation in focus

By Sinéad Carew and Alun John

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -MSCI's global equities index lost ground on Tuesday after touching a record high, while U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a month, as investors digested a slight rise in U.S. inflation and took a mixed view of quarterly results from big banks. 

The latest economic data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased 0.3% in June, in line with forecasts, but the largest gain since January. Prices rose across goods from coffee to audio equipment to home furnishings in what economists saw as evidence the Trump administration's increasing import taxes are being passed through to consumers.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been keeping interest rates steady as it waited for data indicating the impact from tariffs. But after Tuesday's data, traders stuck to their bets that the Fed is more likely than not to cut rates in September, continuing to price around a 60% chance of a move after the data. 

"Tariffs are in the data, but it’s not as devastating as many feared," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. "It’s not that tariffs don’t matter, it’s just that they don’t matter to inflation as much or as mechanically as many feared."

On Wall Street at 2:45 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 324.91 points, or 0.74%, to 44,132.54, the S&P 500 fell 3.76 points, or 0.06%, to 6,264.80 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 122.26 points, or 0.59%, to 20,762.80. 

It helped that the tech-heavy Nasdaq was boosted by chip stocks, with heavyweight Nvidia rallying on Tuesday after the AI chip leader said it would resume sales of its H20 chips to China, sending its shares up around 4%.

But MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe  fell 1.56 points, or 0.17%, to 921.90. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index closed down  0.37%.

Also on Tuesday, investors processed results from JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup that beat expectations, but were met with a mixed market response. 

JPMorgan was down 0.8%, while Citi shares rallied more than 4%. Wells Fargo shares fell more than 6% as it cut its 2025 net interest income guidance even as it beat second-quarter profit expectations. 

S&P 500 profits are expected to rise 5.8% year-over-year, according to LSEG data. The outlook has dimmed since the early April forecast of 10.2% growth, before President Donald Trump launched his trade war.

TRADE WAR STILL IN FOCUS

U.S. Treasury yields rose after initially slipping following the inflation data. 

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 6 basis points to 4.487%, from 4.427% late on Monday, while the 30-year bond yield rose 4.3 basis points to 5.0156%.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 5.9 basis points to 3.957%, from 3.898% late on Monday.

Trade was also still an investor focus after Trump threatened over the weekend to impose 30% duties on the European Union and Mexico from August 1 - above the 20% on the EU he had initially proposed in April. However, Trump said on Monday he was open to further negotiations.

Along with tariffs and inflation, investors were focused on the U.S. fiscal and debt outlook as well as the pressure from Trump on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, according to Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank's New York branch.

“There are a lot of balls in the air. It's just that it's unclear how heavy each one of them is, and which one is going to have the biggest impact when it lands,” Englander said. 

Japan is also reportedly trying to schedule high-level talks with the U.S. on Friday. 

In currencies, the dollar reached a 15-week high against the Japanese yen, strengthening 0.77% to 148.84 yen.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.51% to 98.62, with the euro down 0.52% at $1.1602. Sterling weakened 0.29% to $1.3388.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.16% to $116,425.98 after hitting a record on Monday.

Oil prices were lower on Tuesday after Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions eased concerns about any immediate supply disruptions.

U.S. crude settled down 0.69% or 46 cents at $66.52 a barrel while Brent settled at $68.71 per barrel, down 0.72% or 50 cents on the day.

Gold prices inched lower on Tuesday as market participants awaited tariff updates, while the inflation report showed a widely expected increase in U.S. consumer prices last month.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,330.00 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.64% to $3,330.10 an ounce.

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew, Chuck Mikolajczak, Karen Brettell in New York, Alun John and Lawrence White in London and Rocky Swift in Tokyo. Editing by Aidan Lewis, Barbara Lewis and Matthew Lewis)