Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on August 4, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 22, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleStock futures rise as markets anticipate interest rate cuts. US payrolls report and Trump's tariffs influence economic outlook.
(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
It's been a case of buy the dip so far on Monday as U.S. and European stock futures edge up, along with the dollar. The Nikkei suffered a delayed reaction to Friday's Wall Street rout and a jump in the yen, but the rest of Asia fared better.
Early trade saw Fed fund futures price in 65 bps of interest rate cuts by December, but that's back to 60 bps now. That's still a world away from the 33 bps seen before Friday's weak U.S. payrolls report, and September is still 83% for an easing.
In fact, the 25 bps drop in two-year yields on Friday was essentially the market doing a Fed rate cut for them, given how borrowing costs in the States are tied to yields not the funds rate.
Ten-year yields also fell a steep 14 bps but met resistance around 4.20%, a level they have repeatedly struggled to break under since October last year.
Longer term, downward revisions to payrolls have seriously challenged the U.S. claim to economic out-performance and the dollar's crown of exceptionalism. The latter was also tarnished by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an institution with an invaluable reputation for scrupulous honesty that won the trust of investors worldwide.
Or, at least, it used to be. Now, Trump says he will chose a new head for the BLS in the next few days. Will it be an independent-minded statistician dedicated to providing credible data, or a Trump loyalist eager to please their master?
U.S. assets enjoy a trust premium that will be really hard to maintain as Trump bends all levels of government to his will.
Trump also just floated the idea of using some of the windfall from tariffs to pay "dividends" to a lucky group of Americans chosen by him - no doubt with special cheques bearing a "TRUMP" logo.
So you slap taxes on everyone that buys imports, whether they have a choice or not, and then use part of the revenue to pay money to those you favour, in your name rather than the government that's actually doing the work.
Talking of tariffs, a U.S. appeals court late last week heard arguments on the legality of Trump's "reciprocal" levies and sounded inclined to support the original ruling that the tariffs were illegal.
Such a ruling would likely still go to the Supreme Court, which has tended to favour unbridled presidential power. Yet, should the tariffs be found illegal, not only would all the trade deals agreed or underway be null and void, but the Treasury would have to refund all the money collected.
Wouldn't that be fun...
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
* Swiss CPI for JulyTrying to keep up with the latest tariff news?
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(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
U.S. and European stock futures are edging up, indicating a 'buy the dip' sentiment among investors.
Fed fund futures initially priced in 65 bps of interest rate cuts by December, but this has adjusted to 60 bps following the weak U.S. payrolls report.
The U.S. dollar's exceptionalism is being challenged by downward revisions to payrolls and concerns over the Trump administration's influence on economic data.
A U.S. appeals court is considering the legality of Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, which may still go to the Supreme Court if found illegal.
If the tariffs are deemed illegal, it could impact all trade deals agreed upon and challenge the presidential power over trade regulations.
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