Morning Bid: The Devil's in the Lack of Detail

U.S.-China Trade Talks: The Devil's in the Details

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

Take your pick from "substantial progress", "constructive", "an important first step", "reached important consensus", "good news for the world", and easily the best: "As we say back in China, if the dishes are delicious, the timing doesn't matter".

All were uttered by negotiators during the U.S.-China trade talks over the weekend in Geneva, and they do sound like progress compared with the jingoistic war of words that marked the initial announcement of President Trump's 145% tariffs.

What was lacking was specifics, and it was notable that neither team mentioned actual tariff levels at all over the weekend. A joint statement is expected later on Monday, which may offer more detail, though markets doubt the White House take that a "deal" is being done.

It's an odd world where investors trust the word of a communist one-party state over the United States.

Anyway, markets are relieved that weapons weren't drawn during the talks and have pushed S&P 500 futures up 1.4% and Nasdaq futures almost 2%. European stock futures have gained 0.8% or so.

The dollar is up modestly on safe havens and Treasuries have suffered knee-jerk selling as the market further trims its expectations on the pace of future Fed rate cuts.

The odds for a June easing are now priced at just 17%, with July at 59%. Futures imply 63 basis points of cuts this year, compared with more than 110 bps in mid-April.

Helping the mood was the fragile ceasefire holding between India and Pakistan, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for talks.

As for the economic diary, U.S. CPI on Tuesday might hint at price rises to come, although analysts assume the first clear impact of tariffs will show in the May report. Retail sales are forecast to be flat for April, with the risk likely to the downside given the chilling effect that the announcement of import levies had on consumer sentiment.

One assumes tariffs won't be applied to the gold-decked 747 Trump plans to accept from the Qatari royal family. Membership has its privileges, it seems.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Eurogroup meeting includes ECB board members Cipollone and Buch; appearances by BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli and policymakers Greene, Mann and Taylor.

- Fed Board Governor Kugler speaks on the economic outlook

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)