Global shares flat amid Ukraine talks, ahead of Jackson Hole

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Samuel Indyk

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Wall Street and European shares ended flat to modestly lower on Monday ahead of a key central bank gathering later in the week that likely will determine the future path of U.S. interest rate policy.

Investors also focused on the meeting between Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy and President Donald Trump. The U.S. leader said on Monday the United States would help Europe in providing security for Ukraine as part of any deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Both heads of state are also pushing for a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Financial markets, however, reacted little to news out of the Ukraine talks.

"I don't really see anything big in this or anything new or tangible," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York.

"For Ukraine and the EU, their argument is basically Russia took Crimea and it wasn't good enough for them. Now they're trying to take more of Ukraine. And even now with all these negotiations going on, Russia is trying to make a bigger offensive push."

The Zelenskiy meeting followed the Alaska summit with Putin, which did not result in an agreement. Trump after the Alaska talks with Putin appeared more aligned with Moscow on seeking a full peace deal instead of a ceasefire first.

The S&P 500 closed little changed on Monday, but remained within striking distance of its all-time high hit on Friday. 

The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended the day slightly higher after reaching its strongest level since March last week, which left the MSCI All Country World Index also slightly lower, but not far from its record high touched on Friday.

Earlier in the Asian session, indexes in Japan and Taiwan hit record peaks, while a gauge of Chinese stocks reached its highest level in a decade.

Another key focus for the week is the Federal Reserve's August 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank's policy framework.

U.S. rate futures market has priced in an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on September 17, and is pricing further easing by December. 

"Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely signal Friday that risks to employment and inflation are becoming more balanced, which would imply lowering policy rates toward neutral," wrote Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist at Citi in a research note.

"But he will stop short of committing to a cut next month, awaiting jobs and inflation data for August."

The prospect of lower borrowing costs globally has overall underpinned stock markets, and Japan's Nikkei climbed to a fresh record high. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, ended flat on Monday having scaled a four-year peak last week.

In Europe, Germany's DAX eased 0.2%. Britain's FTSE was up 0.2%.

ROBUST EARNINGS

In the United States, the rally in stocks has been underpinned by a solid earnings season as the S&P 500 EPS grew 11% on the year and 58% of companies raised their full-year guidance.

"Earnings results have continued to be exceptional for the mega-cap tech companies," said analysts at Goldman Sachs.

This week's results will provide some color on the state of consumer spending in the country, with Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart all reporting.   

In bond markets, the yield curve steepened, with the gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields hitting 57.8 basis points. That's the largest gap since mid-July.

Rates on the long end of the curve rose much faster than those on the front end, suggesting higher inflation expectations.

In the FX market, wagers on more Fed easing have weighed on the dollar, which dropped 0.3% against a basket of currencies on Monday and last stood at 98.114.

The dollar rose 0.4% versus the yen to 147.82, while the euro fell 0.3% to $1.1667.

In commodity markets, gold was flat at $3,333 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week. [GOL/]

Oil prices rose in the aftermath of the meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy, which did not really yield meaningful results [O/R]. Brent was up 1% at $66.52 a barrel, while U.S. crude stood at $63.34 per barrel, up 0.9%.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York and Samuel Indyk in London; Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney, Gregor Stuart Hunter and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Christina Fincher, Susan Fenton, Mark Potter and Sandra Maler)