Macro Hedge Funds Are Outperforming so Far in 2025

Macro hedge funds are outperforming so far in 2025

By Nell Mackenzie

LONDON (Reuters) - Macro hedge funds taking advantage of volatile markets have enjoyed outsized results so far in 2025, while stock picking and multi-strategy funds have produced mixed returns.

Numbers from hedge fund research firm PivotalPath show that the broader hedge fund industry is up 1.3% this year, but some funds which trade on macroeconomic signals have delivered returns far higher.

Hedge fund EDL Capital, which trades assets such as currencies and bonds based on global macroeconomic outlooks, has returned nearly 17% from the start of the year to March 7, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday.

The $1.3 billion fund run by star trader Edouard de Langlade, previously at Moore Capital, finished February up 5.9% bringing its year-to-date performance to 6.7% at that time, said the source.

But the fund then returned another 10% in a so far volatile March. Last week, German 10-year bonds suffered their largest weekly sell-off since 1990 and the euro jumped by the most since March 2009 as Germany moved to step up defence and infrastructure spending, while the S&P 500 saw its biggest weekly fall in six months as concerns about the U.S. economic outlook grew.

Macro hedge funds returned on average 2.3% to the end of February, according to PivotalPath.

Hedge fund Rokos Capital Management's return on investment was down 0.29% over the first 21 days of February but up 0.57% for 2025 so far, a source with knowledge of the matter said. Rokos declined to comment.

British financier Andrew Law's macro fund Caxton returned 4% in February, bringing gains for the first two months of the year to 7%, said another source with knowledge of the matter on Friday. Caxton did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

STRUGGLES

Stock picking hedge funds struggled in February and the trend has continued in March.

Hedge funds were caught in crowded trades that sold off last week, with global stock pickers giving up half of their gains this year so far. Global fundamental stock pickers ended the week with a 1% average return on the year so far, Goldman Sachs said in a note sent to clients on Thursday.

U.S. stock pickers finished down 1.4% amid last week's selloff, taking their year-to-date performance to negative 0.5%, the note said.

Hedge funds that employ different kinds of trading strategies also had "a challenging day", Goldman data showed. 

This kind of hedge fund, which for the last three years has produced consistently positive returns, has lost money on 18 out of 29 days since January 27, said Goldman. 

February left some of the biggest of these funds with mixed returns for the year so far.

D.E. Shaw's Oculus Fund returned a negative 4.3%, taking its year to negative 2.8% so far, a source said. D.E. Shaw declined to comment.

Millennium Management, which has roughly $75 billion of assets under management, was down 1.3% in February taking year-to-date returns to a negative 0.8%, said sources with knowledge of the matter.

Citadel was down 1.7% in February, leaving the $66 billion firm 0.3% lower for the year to date.

Balyasny's February return was up 0.9%, with the $24 billion firm up 3.5% so far this year. Balyasny, Citadel and Millennium's results were first reported by Bloomberg.

Hedge fund February YTD so far

Millennium Management -1.3% -0.8%

D.E. Shaw Oculus Fund -4.3% -2.8%

Balyasny 0.9% 3.5%

Citadel -1.7% -0.3%

EDL Capital 5.9% 16.7%*

Rokos Capital Management -0.29% 0.57%

Caxton 4% 7%

CFM Discus 3.92% 7.87%

CFM Stratus 1.83% 4.45%

AQR Apex 2.8% 5.4%

* Estimate of returns as of March 7

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker and Louise Heavens, Kirsten Donovan)