Dollar struggles near three-year low against euro

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar was flat against the euro on Monday after a bruising week last week sent it to a three-year low against the single currency and left it oversold by some technical metrics.

The greenback fell against the yen, meanwhile, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s erratic implementation of tariffs damages confidence in the world's reserve currency.

The dollar has decoupled from U.S. Treasury yields, which last week rose even as the dollar fell. That has raised speculation that investors are moving investments out of the country as they worry about the longevity and impact of trade levies.

“The policy-making is so chaotic that it's tough to think beyond the next 24 hours in terms of where the policy rates might be or where the economy is headed,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

“The uncertainty is now at an intolerable level for most businesses in international trade and the question is how quickly that hits the consumer in the real economy. Right now, the market is taking a dim view on future U.S. growth and that has come through most clearly in the currency market,” Button said.

The Trump administration's tariff policies are a major shock to the U.S. economy that could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to head off a recession even if inflation remains high, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday.

Americans’ expectations for near-term inflation in March hit the highest level since the autumn of 2023, amid a souring in the public’s assessment of their personal finances and hiring prospects, a report from the New York Fed said on Monday.

The euro was little changed on the day at $1.1359. It reached $1.1473 on Friday, the highest since February 2022.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.39% to 142.93. It fell to 142.05 on Friday, the lowest since September.

The dollar underwent a four standard-deviation decline over the past week, Bilal Hafeez, CEO at Macro Hive, said on Monday in a note. “Normally, this would point to a likely rebound. But if we are witnessing a structural regime change, similar to the early 1970s breakdown of Bretton Woods, then all bets are off.”

Trump on Sunday said he would be announcing the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility with some companies in the sector.

The White House on Friday granted an exclusion from steep tariffs for smartphones, computers and certain other electronics imported largely from China. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday, however, that they would face separate new duties along with semiconductors within the next two months.

"Markets right now are trading the uncertainty, and that has not been helped over the weekend by the contradictory stories coming out of the U.S. administration," said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe.

"That really skews risks for the time being towards further dollar weakness as markets try to avoid some of this uncertainty by hiding basically anywhere that isn't in the U.S."

Trump on Monday also suggested he might grant exemptions on auto-related levies already in place.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said his country does not plan to make big concessions and will not rush to reach a deal in upcoming tariff negotiations with Trump's administration.

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa also said that foreign exchange issues would be dealt with between Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar weakened 0.18% to 0.814 francs.

Sterling gained 0.88% to $1.3195.

The Australian dollar was up 0.84% at $0.6338 extending its more than 4% gain from last week.

The offshore yuan fell 0.35% to 7.307 per dollar. It struck a record low last week as the trade war between the United States and China intensified.

Data showed China's exports rose sharply in March after factories rushed out shipments before the latest U.S. tariffs took effect.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.90% to $85,066.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell. Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru. Editing by Saad Sayeed, Chizu Nomiyama, and Mark Potter and Marguerita Choy)