Germany's Merz slips behind far right in poll after angering friends and foes

By Thomas Escritt

BERLIN (Reuters) -Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives slipped into second place behind Germany's far right in a poll marking his hundredth day in office after a tough summer in which a botched judicial appointment and a reversal on supplying Israel with arms alienated foes and allies alike.

The Forsa poll, which put the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 26%, two points higher than the conservatives, comes ahead of a political season that will be dominated by tough decisions on revitalising a flagging economy and allocating painful spending cuts.

Merz's decision last week to suspend arms shipments to Israel after it announced plans to fully occupy Gaza was popular among voters but angered conservative allies who saw it as a betrayal of Germany's historical obligations.

Merz's two-way coalition with the Social Democrats has scored some big wins: Even before taking office it managed to break with a long tradition of fiscal tight-fistedness by passing an almost trillion-euro debt package to boost the economy and finance support for Ukraine.

The chancellor has cut a more assured figure on the international stage than his Social Democrat predecessor Olaf Scholz, playing a central role in efforts to rally European countries to form a united front in defence of Ukraine as U.S. President Donald Trump wavers in his support.

In domestic policy, Merz's government has been vocal about its desire to reduce immigration, planning cuts to benefits available to Ukrainian war refugees, for example.

"The far right is now ahead of the conservatives thanks to their migration and economic policies," left-wing activist Christoph Bautz wrote on social media. "Now would be a good time for the government to drop their course of culture war and conceding ground to the far right."

It is not the first time the AfD have been ahead of the conservatives in the polls, having also come out top in Forsa's poll in April. Germany's next big electoral test is a regional vote in the south-western state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in March 2026, the first of five of Germany's 16 states to go to the polls next year. 

Even though Merz took office promising to hew closer to doctrinaire conservative instincts than Angela Merkel, Germany's last centre-right chancellor, the debt move was the first of many to sow doubts in the minds of right-wing backers.

Just 29% of respondents to a weekend DeutschlandTrend poll for ARD television thought him a good crisis manager. His personal popularity was measured at 32%, well behind Scholz or Merkel on their 100th day, when they scored 56% and 74% respectively.

While Merz's moves on debt and arming Israel were a bitter pill for many conservative allies, his ideological opponents were angered when he failed to deliver the votes to appoint the Social Democrats' candidate for a constitutional court judgeship.

Law professor Frauke Brosius-Gersdorf, who last week withdrew her name from consideration after a lengthy campaign in right-wing news websites had portrayed her as dangerously radical in her support for abortion rights.

Merz faced criticism for first agreeing to back her candidacy and then changing his mind when it turned out he was unable to persuade enough of his own legislators to back her.

The Social Democrats were on 13% in the latest Forsa poll, down three points from their score in February's election, while the number of undecideds was at a seven-month high. Another poll by Insa for Bild still had the conservatives in the lead.

(Reporting by Thomas Escritt; Editing by Hugh Lawson)