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Germany set for tricky coalition building, poll shows ahead of election
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 21, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 26, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 21, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 26, 2026
Germany's election sees mainstream parties losing ground, complicating coalition building and affecting Europe's leadership.
By Sarah Marsh and Andreas Rinke
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's mainstream political parties lost support while the far-right AfD gained ground in one of the last polls published before the election on Sunday, pointing to likely tricky coalition building that could drag on for months.
The vote comes at an awkward moment, leaving a leadership vacuum at the heart of Europe just as it seeks to tackle a confrontational U.S. Donald Trump whose apparent desire to disengage from the region and mend ties with Russia raises questions about the solidity of the western alliance.
Election frontrunner Friedrich Merz, the head of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, warned on Friday that while Germany's future lay in the West, it was not clear that the West would include the United States anymore.
"But even without Americans, our place remains in the centre of Europe, not alongside Putin and not isolated on the way to the right-wing populist sidelines," he wrote in a letter to supporters on Friday.
"For Europe to continue to succeed in the future, Germany must be prepared to take on leadership responsibility."
The CDU/CSU which has consistently led polls for months dropped one percentage point to 29% in the survey by Forsa, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained one point to 21%.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats dropped one point to 15% while the Greens and the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) were steady on 13% and 5% respectively. The far-left Left party inched up one point to 8%.
With all parties refusing to work with the AfD in a country scarred by its Nazi past, the latest poll suggests it will be near impossible for any two of the other parties to form a majority.
Instead, frontrunner Merz will likely have to form a three-way coalition with either the SPD and Greens or SPD and FDP, according to the poll, making negotiations all the trickier.
Coalition talks could therefore take longer, leaving Scholz in a caretaker role but unable to take major decisions on the future of Europe's largest economy.
It also suggests the next coalition might be as incohesive and difficult to govern as the three-way alliance led by Scholz that collapsed last November after just three years in power.
Scholz's was the first such three-way coalition in decades at a national level - but such coalitions are set to become more frequent given the rise of the AfD and the decline of the erstwhile big-tent parties.
Still, the tone of the campaign has softened in the past week in a sign parties are preparing the path for talks.
Asked in a television debate if he would get into the boat of keen oarsman Scholz, Merz replied "Ja" (yes). Likewise, Scholz affirmed he would take a plane with hobby pilot Merz. "I assume he was given his pilot permit for a reason."
The moment of camaraderie belied the tensions that had erupted between the leaders in recent weeks over migration policy, however, and in particular Merz's decision to attempt to push through a crackdown on migration with support from the AfD.
Merz had previously vowed not to rely on AfD lawmakers to get measures through parliament. Scholz and others said they could no longer trust him after his turnaround.
(Reporting by Sarah Marsh; editing by Matthias Williams and Hugh Lawson)
Germany's mainstream political parties have lost support, while the far-right AfD has gained ground, with the CDU/CSU dropping to 29% and the AfD rising to 21%.
With all parties refusing to work with the AfD due to its Nazi past, forming a majority coalition becomes difficult, likely requiring a three-way alliance.
The election comes at a critical time, as it leaves a leadership vacuum in Europe while Germany must prepare to take on greater responsibility for the continent's future.
Coalition negotiations could take longer, leaving Chancellor Scholz in a caretaker role, unable to make significant decisions for Europe's largest economy.
Scholz's coalition was the first three-way alliance at the national level in decades, but it collapsed after just three years in power, indicating potential difficulties ahead.
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