European LNG imports to rise 25% in 2025, IEA forecasts

OSLO (Reuters) - Europe's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are set to increase by a quarter this year, as the continent needs to offset lower pipeline gas supplies amid a weather-driven rise in demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

"Over the whole of 2025, European LNG imports are expected to increase by 25%, or about 33 billion cubic metres (bcm)," the IEA said in a quarterly gas market update, adding this would bring them near to all-time highs.

The surge will be driven by lower pipeline supply from Russia, higher domestic demand and storage injection needs, and greater exports toward Ukraine, it added.

Over the first three months of the year, European LNG imports grew by 23%, or more than 9 bcm, the IEA said.

"This contrasts sharply with the nearly 30 bcm y-o-y drop in European LNG imports in 2024, illustrating the rapidly changing state of the global gas market," the IEA said.

European Union gas storage ended the winter with only 35 bcm of gas in storage, equivalent to a 34% fill level, which it will need to refill to 90% ahead of next winter.

Compared to last year, this meant the EU market faced an incremental injection requirement of close to 20 bcm, or 50% more than last year, by November 1, the IEA projected.

The agency is forecasting gas demand in Europe to increase by 1.5% compared to 2024, due rising demand in the residential and commercial sectors.

However, gas-to-power demand is expected down 10% year-on-year due to the continued expansion of renewables.

Industrial gas use should decline through the remainder of the year, as higher gas prices are expected to weigh on gas- and energy-intensive industries, the IEA said.

(Reporting by Nora Buli; Editing by Kim Coghill)