Analysis-Innovent's weight-loss drug highlights China challenge for Novo, Lilly 

By Andrew Silver

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -Innovent Biologics' newly launched weight-loss drug is making inroads in its home market of China, ramping up competition with its Western rivals as it pursues a marketing strategy that is gaining traction.

Xinermei, launched in July, is the third once-weekly injectable GLP-1 weight management therapy available in China after Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro.

Those were introduced in late 2024 and January 2025 respectively, several months after their own approvals, into a Chinese weight-loss drug market that is expected by analysts to be worth billions in the coming years.

While it joined the race late, Innovent's goals included raising awareness of weight management in society and emphasising the drug's proven ability to reduce liver fat in front of key customers, Chief Financial Officer Rachel You said on an earnings call last month. 

"Chinese companies may have an advantage in the Chinese market understanding branding and consumers better compared to foreign companies," said Allan von Mehren, a Copenhagen-based economist at Danske Bank.

The market share of weight-loss drugs in China is opaque, with firms including Innovent and Lilly not disclosing sales figures. Lilly said in a statement that it was positioned to "deliver valuable treatment options to patients." 

Novo, which is cutting 9,000 jobs globally as it faces rising competition from Lilly and others, said it had a "market-leading position" in China.

Sales of obesity care products in Novo's greater China region in the second quarter of 2025 amounted to about 158 million Danish crowns ($24.8 million), a Reuters calculation based on data from Novo investor presentations showed, down sharply from 704 million Danish crowns in the first quarter.

Asked about the decline, Novo said "there have been some stock movements quarter over quarter". 

Morningstar forecast Xinermei, also known as mazdutide, would contribute more than 600 million yuan ($84.4 million) to Innovent this year before reaching peak sales of 3.5 billion yuan in 2029, accounting for about 20% of Innovent's revenue. 

By comparison, Novo's Wegovy sales in China are estimated at roughly 2.2 billion Danish crowns ($346 million) this year and are expected to grow by another 30% in 2026 and then decline due to generic competition, according to the research firm's forecast. 

Morningstar said it did not have sales estimates for Lilly's Mounjaro in China. 

Innovent's shares have risen about 155% since the start of the year amid a broader rally for Chinese biotech companies, compared to a 38% fall for Novo and a nearly 3% decline for Lilly.

INCREASING COMPETITION

You said last month that Innovent was actively expanding partnerships with online platforms, retail pharmacies, private hospitals and clinics to help extend Xinermei's reach and improve the patient experience. 

The company also said in a statement it would expand into public hospitals. It declined to provide further details about its marketing plan.

Innovent's weight-loss product appeared to be widely available from suppliers listed on China's dominant e-commerce platform JD.com in China's capital Beijing, as are those of its once-weekly rivals, a Reuters check showed. 

The drugs are costly prescription medicines not covered by China's national healthcare insurance for weight loss.

Assuming maximum product dosages per week, at launch the monthly cost for Wegovy in China would be $400 and for Mounjaro $900, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs. Innovent's recommended price for its highest dosage of four 6 mg Xinermei injector pens is 2,920 yuan ($411), the drugmaker said in a statement. 

Innovent in 2019 secured exclusive development and commercialisation rights in China for mazdutide from Lilly under undisclosed financial terms.

"Right now they're really looking at launching obesity but you have Type 2 diabetes coming and then also other indications," Enrique Conterno, a former president of Lilly's diabetes unit, said of Innovent's uses for mazdutide. "My sense is that this is going to be a major blockbuster product in China."

Innovent said on Friday that mazdutide had received approval from Chinese regulators as a treatment for type 2 diabetes. Lilly is continuing to develop mazdutide globally. 

Unlike Wegovy and Mounjaro, it also targets a hormone called GCG, an approach Innovent argues could have benefits for liver health. One study showed that for some people, Xinermei helped reduce liver fat content, which can lead to serious health problems when too high. 

Some obese patients diagnosed with fatty liver disease have come to Peking University People’s Hospital proactively asking if they are able to use Xinermei, said Ji Linong, director of the public hospital’s endocrinology department. 

Asked for information on prescription volume for Xinermei, Wegovy and Mounjaro, he said it was related to when each drug launched. 

All of the drugmakers face the prospect of more local competition in China, where Novo's patent on Wegovy's active ingredient semaglutide expires in 2026 and companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and Hangzhou Jiuyuan Genetic Biopharmaceutical Co are developing their own versions of the drug. 

"If mazdutide is truly successful, it will have an impact on Western competitors," said Tony Ren, head of Asia healthcare research at Macquarie Capital. "We also know that generic semaglutide could launch in China in 2027, or as early as 2026. Whether mazdutide can fend off generic semaglutide though, is still unclear in our view."

($1 = 7.1132 Chinese yuan renminbi)

($1 = 6.3592 Danish crowns)

(Reporting by Andrew Silver; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Jamie Freed)