Sterling strengthens on dollar, weakens on euro, British GDP up next

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling was buffeted by moves elsewhere on Thursday, jumping 1% against an under-pressure dollar and dropping more on the resurgent euro as currency markets swung in the aftermath of the previous day's shock postponement of some tariffs.

Friday may see British-specific factors take over, with February GDP data due, though it is likely the sharp swings on the back of tariff headlines will continue to drive sentiment across assets.

Market moves on Thursday were still in the shadow of the announcement the day earlier from U.S. President Donald Trump that he would temporarily lower the hefty duties he had just imposed on dozens of countries.

Though the kneejerk optimism that followed that move for U.S. assets had firmly faded by late on Thursday in Europe, and the pound was last up 1% on the dollar to $1.296 in what would be its biggest one-day gain in more than a month.

The move was generally in the same direction as the overall mood across currency markets, with the dollar lower across the board. [FRX/]

In contrast, however, the British currency weakened on the euro, with the common currency up 1.3% on the pound to 86.47 pence, testing its 16-month top of 86.62 pence hit the day before.

Barring the safe haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc, the euro has been the biggest beneficiary of the turmoil in U.S. markets, which analysts attribute in part to European investors reducing their once large holdings of U.S. equities and bonds.

Any equivalent flows for the pound are much less.

In addition, the tariff reprieve meant less for Britain than Europe, as direct tariffs on British imports remain unchanged at 10%, even if it benefits slightly from the smaller hit to global growth as a result.

In this context investors will be closely watching Friday's economic data.

Deutsche Bank analysts expect a marginal rebound from the 0.1% shrinking in GDP in January, but they said in a Thursday note that "despite the temporary tariff reprieve, the UK finds itself in a difficult place".

"Trade uncertainty will no doubt remain elevated. Sentiment will likely have weakened. And policy makers will need to carefully calibrate their next steps as we brave into a new economic world."

But they said this was unlikely, at this stage, to move the Bank of England to faster rate cuts.

"We think things will have to get markedly worse to convince the majority of the (monetary policy committee) for a bigger rate cut."

Markets currently see a 25-basis point Bank of England rate cut at its next meeting in May as all-but-certain, with at least two and possibly three further such moves by year-end, at roughly every other BoE meeting.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said Thursday the impact on UK inflation from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs - and the implications for interest rates - remained unclear even if Washington's new policies were likely to lower growth.

(Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Alex Richardson)