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Factbox-Bosnia's stability under threat in standoff over Dodik sentence
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on February 26, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 25, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on February 26, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 25, 2026
Bosnia's stability is threatened as Milorad Dodik defies a court sentence, risking ethnic tensions and political unrest.
SARAJEVO (Reuters) - Bosnian state prosecutors have ordered the arrest of Russian-backed Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik for ignoring a court summons, raising the stakes in a standoff that threatens the Balkan country's stability.
Here are key facts on Bosnia's complex structure following the war of the 1990s and what Dodik's sentence could mean:
HOW IS BOSNIA DIVIDED?
Bosnia, the former Yugoslavia's most ethnically mixed republic, is today divided into two regions - the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and a federation of Croats and Bosnian Muslims or Bosniaks - linked by a weak central government. There is also a small and neutral Brcko district in the north. This structure was set up by the Dayton peace accords that ended the 1992-95 war.
The two regions have their own presidency, parliament and government, as well as their own police and judiciary. The Bosniak-Croat Federation is further split into ten cantons, each with its own government and parliament. Banja Luka is the Bosnian Serb administrative seat while Sarajevo is the capital of the country and of the Bosniak-Croat Federation.
According to the 2013 census, the Bosniak-Croat Federation had a population of 2.219 million and Republika Srpska 1.228 million, but the country has experienced heavy population loss. Today it is believed to have under 3 million people.
HOW DO THE REGIONS OPERATE?
The international community through its powerful High Representative, currently German former government minister Christian Schmidt, has tried to strengthen Bosnia's central government institutions and put the country on a firm path towards European integration.
The country has a tripartite presidency, which consists of a Bosniak, a Croat and a Serb representative who rotate in the position of the presiding member. It is mostly a ceremonial role however.
The national parliament elects a Council of Ministers which is in charge of foreign policy and trade, security, defence, treasury, justice, human rights, transport and civil affairs. Bosnia has had a joint army since 2006 and in 2002 a state court and state prosecutor's office were formed.
HOW COULD BOSNIAN SERBS REACT?
Last month, the state court sentenced Dodik to a year in jail and banned him from politics for six years for defying the rulings of an international peace envoy.
Dodik rejected the conviction and announced measures to reduce the state's presence in his Serb-dominated region of Bosnia by banning the state prosecutor, the state court, and the intelligence agency. He warned that Bosnia's ethnic Serbs will leave state institutions in protest. "There is no more Bosnia-Herzegovina as of today," he told a crowd of supporters.
Dodik's conviction marks another low point in the political history of Bosnia, which suffered a bloody ethnic conflict in the 1990s and has since been wrecked by divisions.
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1990S CONFLICT?
The socialist federation of Yugoslavia, founded in 1943, began to crumble after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, and its republics started to seek independence. Bosniaks and ethnic Croats voted for independence in 1992 against the wishes of the Bosnian Serbs, who feared they would become a minority in a sovereign Bosnia. The 43-month ethnic war that followed, with Bosnian Serbs backed by Serbia and Croats backed by Croatia, cost about 100,000 lives.
(Reporting by Ivana Sekularac and Daria Sito-Sucic; Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Timothy Heritage)
Milorad Dodik was sentenced to a year in jail for defying the rulings of an international peace envoy, which included a ban from politics for six years.
Bosnia is divided into two main regions: the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation, each with its own government, police, and judiciary.
The High Representative, currently Christian Schmidt, is tasked with strengthening Bosnia's central government institutions and overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement.
Dodik's rejection of the court's decision and his measures to reduce the state's presence in Republika Srpska could escalate tensions and threaten Bosnia's stability.
The 1990s conflict led to significant ethnic divisions and a complex political landscape in Bosnia, which continues to affect its governance and stability today.
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