ASML warns tariffs cloud outlook for 2025 and 2026

By Nathan Vifflin and Leo Marchandon

(Reuters) -ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, said on Wednesday that tariffs were increasing uncertainty around its outlook for 2025 and 2026, but stood by its annual guidance as the race for AI rages on.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said his conversations with customers supported ASML's expectations that 2025 and 2026 would be growth years.

"However, the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment," Fouquet said in a statement.

The Dutch group's finance chief Roger Dassen broke down four ways tariffs could impact it in an internal interview published on ASML's website.

Those were shipments to the United States, tariffs on imported parts and tools, material imports needed for its manufacturing operations there, and tariffs from other countries on U.S. exports.

Dassen also warned of the indirect impact on global economic growth, which is yet to be quantified.

"We're very actively working with the entire ecosystem to try and minimize the overall impact on the whole ecosystem as a result of that," he said.

Tariffs could cost U.S. semiconductor equipment makers more than $1 billion a year, according to industry calculations discussed with officials, a Reuters report showed Tuesday.

"It's great news that 2025 financial guidance remains unchanged -- or even worse than some were fearing, that perhaps guidance would be eliminated entirely," said Nick Rossolillo of Concinnus Financial which has held ASML shares since 2022.

The global race for AI has put ASML at the forefront of the industry, as the maker of the world's most advanced chip circuitry engraving system, the high-NA EUV lithography machine, which makes the chips of designers like Nvidia or Apple.

Artificial intelligence continues to be the main growth driver for ASML, Fouquet said.

"It has created a shift in the market dynamics that benefits some customers more than others, contributing to both upside potential and downside risks as reflected in our 2025 revenue range," he added about AI.

Analyst Timm Schulze-Melander from Redburn Atlantic said the AI push benefited TSMC and Nvidia more than Intel and Samsung.

Han Dieperink, chief investment officer at investment firm Auréus, welcomed EUV's growing share of system sales and the shipment of ASML's fifth next-generation high-NA system.

ASML's net bookings, the most closely watched figure in the industry, missed estimates in the first quarter at 3.9 billion euros ($4.4 billion).

It forecast second-quarter sales of 7.2 billion to 7.7 billion euros, below analysts' expectations of 7.73 billion, according to LSEG data. At the top of the range, the sales would be in line with the first quarter.

ASML's shares were down 7% in early trading and could see their biggest one-day fall since January 27 if the losses hold.

($1 = 0.8814 euros)

(Reporting by Nathan Vifflin and Leo Marchandon in Gdansk, editing by Milla Nissi)