Next medicine deal after Pfizer? Analysts, shares point to AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly

By Bhanvi Satija and Maggie Fick

LONDON (Reuters) -Wall Street is looking to U.S. drugmaker Eli Lilly and Anglo-Swedish rival AstraZeneca as the potential next in line after Pfizer struck a deal with Donald Trump's administration to lower drug prices last week.

Reuters spoke to seven healthcare analysts and investors. Four said Lilly could be next to make a deal, while three pointed to AstraZeneca. Others mentioned Merck, AbbVie, Regeneron and Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Reuters could not independently confirm any such deals were in the offing, but drugmakers have been jostling to get a deal after Pfizer's September 29 agreement that pledged lower prices via Medicaid for relief on tariffs on imported medicines.

Lucy Coutts, a UK-based investment director at wealth manager JM Finn, predicted that AstraZeneca could be next after it broke ground on a $4.5 billion plant in Virginia this week and is planning a U.S. listing of its shares.

"I'd like to think it will be AstraZeneca given revenues from U.S., its investment in manufacturing and R&D in the US and implementing a dual listing on NYSE," she said.

Lilly said it did not have specific details to share about its discussions with the administration at this time. AstraZeneca did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.

READING THE PHARMA SECTOR TEA LEAVES

Reading the tea leaves with President Trump, however, is not for the faint-hearted. The Pfizer deal caught many in the industry unaware, though most firms have been looking to get into his good books amid threats of tariffs.

The Pfizer deal boosted pharma sector shares, with Eli Lilly the biggest gainer since then and AstraZeneca second. Denmark's Novo Nordisk, Pfizer itself and Novartis lag.

Reuters reported last week that the U.S. government is pursuing deals across as many as 30 industries - including pharmaceuticals. According to two sources, pharma executives are receiving near-daily calls from senior government officials.

Gareth Powell, head of healthcare at London-based investment fund Polar Capital, said that an announcement from Lilly could be in the works, followed by AstraZeneca.

Eli Lilly said last month it will invest $5 billion to build a manufacturing facility in Virginia, part of a $27 billion U.S. expansion over the next five years.

Several other pharmaceutical giants - including AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Novartis, and Johnson & Johnson - have announced U.S. investments this year.

Lilly and AstraZeneca were among the 17 leading drug companies who received a letter from Trump in July telling them to slash prices to match those paid overseas.

Powell said Trump was close to the chief executive officers of Lilly, Pfizer and Regeneron, all U.S. firms.

"If you notice those 17 letters that he sent to pharma, he crossed out the typed up names for Lilly, Pfizer and Regeneron, and wrote it in pen their names in a sort of more friendly manner," he said.

(Reporting by Bhanvi Satija and Maggie Fick; Additional reporting by Patrick Wingrove and Michael Erman in New York; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Susan Fenton)