SMMT Forecasts Nearly 2.1 Million UK New Car Sales in 2026, EV Share Drops
UK New Car Market Outlook and Electric Vehicle Trends
Upgraded Sales Forecast for 2026
May 5 (Reuters) - British new car registrations are expected to rise to nearly 2.1 million units in 2026, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Tuesday, with the share of zero-emission vehicles lower than previously forecast after soft first-quarter demand.
The sales outlook for the industry has been upgraded from about 2.05 million units, signalling improving confidence and healthy demand for new cars in Britain despite risks from the Iran war.
Recent Market Performance
April Registration Growth
The new car market last month grew 24% from a year earlier to reach 149,247 registrations, data from the SMMT showed, reflecting a rebound from an unusually weak April last year.
Zero-Emission Vehicle Share and Future Projections
Lowered EV Share Forecast
The share of zero-emission vehicles in the 2026 sales forecast has been lowered to 26.8% from 28.5% earlier, as a boost to electric vehicle interest from higher fuel prices could be tempered by worries about inflation, energy costs, and pressure on household budgets, the SMMT said.
2027 Market and EV Mandate
The auto body expects the UK's new car market to reach 2.12 million units in 2027, with battery electric vehicles accounting for 32% of registrations, still about six percentage points below the zero-emission vehicle mandate.
Definition of Zero-Emission Vehicles
Zero-emission vehicles include battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, and other models that produce no tailpipe emissions.
Industry Response and Policy Considerations
SMMT CEO Mike Hawes called for a review of the green transition to align policy with market realities as the "mounting cost of compliance threatens to limit consumer choice, overall decarbonisation and the sector’s competitiveness," which could hurt Britain’s attractiveness as a vehicle market and manufacturing hub.
Tesla's UK Sales Surge
Tesla's UK new car sales rose 62% year-on-year to 831 units in April, according to the SMMT. Data from New Automotive on Tuesday also showed a similar jump in Tesla's UK numbers.
(Reporting by Nithyashree R B and Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
