German exports to flatline this year amid Middle East uncertainty, says chambers of commerce
German Export Outlook and Economic Risks in 2024
By Christian Kraemer and Miranda Murray
BERLIN, May 5 (Reuters) - German exports are set to stagnate this year, the chambers of commerce said on Tuesday, lowering its previous forecast for slight growth as companies in Europe's largest economy face supply chain snarls and uncertainty from the Iran war.
The German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) had previously forecast a 1.0% increase in exports of goods and services.
Impact of Global Economic Crisis on German Exports
"The global economy is in crisis mode, and companies are feeling the effects directly," said Volker Treier, DIHK's head of foreign trade.
Key Business Risks Identified by German Companies
A survey by DIHK of 4,500 German companies operating abroad showed that 46% consider high energy prices a key business risk, more than twice as many as in autumn 2025, while 40% cited supply chain disruptions and 37% pointed to raw material prices.
More Pessimistic Outlook for the Future
MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK
Worsening Economic Conditions and Survey Results
These companies have also become more pessimistic about the medium-term outlook, with 32% of survey respondents expecting economic conditions to worsen in the next 12 months as the Iran war exposes vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
That marks an increase of 8 percentage points from DIHK's previous survey, officially called the AHK World Business Outlook, conducted before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran broke out at the end of February.
Uncertainty as a Dominant Factor
"This is more than just a slowdown in the economy. Uncertainty is becoming the determining factor," said Treier.
Regional Impact and Sectoral Differences
Dependence on Oil and Gas Imports
For German firms with operations overseas, the impact of their dependence on oil and gas imports from the Gulf region varies depending on geography, the survey's authors said.
Regional Sentiment Among German Firms
Companies closest to the conflict zone and those in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, are broadly sceptical about the months ahead.
Optimism in Other Key Markets
Firms operating in China, the United States and South America's Mercosur bloc remain comparatively optimistic.
(Reporting by Christian Kraemer and Miranda Murray; editing by Barbara Lewis and Susan Fenton)
