Finance
Traders Place $430 Million Bet on Lower Oil Price Before Trump Ceasefire Extension
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 22, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 22, 2026
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Just 15 minutes before Trump announced an indefinite Iran ceasefire, traders placed $430 million in oil futures bets anticipating a price drop—marking the fourth such well‑timed bet tied to Iran‐war updates this month.
Traders Bet $430 Million on Oil Price Drop Before Trump’s Iran Ceasefire Move
Large, Well-Timed Oil Market Bets Precede Major Iran Announcements
Overview of Recent Trades
LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Traders placed a series of bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
It is the third time this month, and the fourth in total, that large, well-timed directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major announcements on the Iran war. One combined wager in March was worth $500 million, while April's bets have together totalled some $2.1 billion.
Details of the $430 Million Trade
• Between 1954 and 1956 GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of selling hit the oil market, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, according to LSEG data. Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely at 2010 GMT.
• The Brent market settles at 1830 GMT, meaning these trades took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually extremely limited.
• The trades did not have much impact on the price, which edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After Trump's announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.2 a barrel at 1200 GMT on Wednesday.
Previous Well-Timed Bets
March and April Trades
• On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million went through just hours before Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire.
Strait of Hormuz and Additional Bets
• On April 17, some 20 minutes prior to the Iranian foreign minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on a falling oil price.
Regulatory and Market Response
Investigations and Comments
• The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in Iran, a person familiar with the matter said on April 15.
• A spokesperson for the Intercontinental Exchange, known as ICE, declined to comment.
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Amanda Cooper; additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar. Editing by Alex Lawler, Kirsten Donovan)
Key Takeaways
- •Between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on April 21, traders sold 4 ,260 Brent futures lots—about $430 million—just before Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension with Iran. (investing.com)
- •It’s the third well‑timed directional oil bet this month (and fourth overall): earlier trades included ~$500 million before a March 23 delay of attacks, ~$950 million just hours before an April 7 ceasefire, and ~$760 million before Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz on April 17. (investing.com)
- •The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating these trades—raising concerns about insider trading. Lawmakers including Senator Warren and Rep. Torres have pressed for inquiries, and the White House reportedly warned staff about misuse of non‑public information. (sundayguardianlive.com)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Traders place $430 million bet on lower oil price before Trump ceasefire extension
1How much was bet on falling oil prices before Trump's ceasefire extension?
Traders placed $430 million in bets on a drop in oil prices just before President Trump announced the extension of the Iran ceasefire.
2Did these large oil trades affect the Brent crude price?
The trades did not have much immediate impact; Brent crude edged down slightly from $100.91 to $100.66 a barrel before dropping further after Trump's announcement.
3How many times have large pre-announcement oil trades occurred recently?
This is the fourth such event, and the third in April, where large bets on oil prices were made shortly before major announcements related to the Iran war.
4Is there an investigation into the timing of these oil futures trades?
Yes, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating trades placed before recent major policy announcements on the Iran conflict.
5When do most of these large oil trades take place?
Many of the trades happen in post-settlement hours, when trading volumes are usually low.
