Job growth to remain strong
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in June, after decreasing in May. The index now stands at 108.94, up from 107.72 in May. The change represents a 5.2 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.
“As expected, after decreasing in May, the Employment Trends Index continued its solid path upwards in June, with positive contributions from all of its components,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The labor market will continue to tighten in the coming months, with strong employment growth outpacing the number of people entering the labor force.”
June’s decline in the ETI was fueled by positive contributions from all eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, The Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Industrial Production, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, and Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)*
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)**
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.