AI bubble to be short-lived, rebound stronger, NTT DATA chief says

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By Divya Chowdhury

MUMBAI, Dec 5 (Reuters) - A potential artificial intelligence bubble will deflate faster than past tech cycles but give way to an even stronger rebound as corporate adoption catches up with infrastructure spending, the head of Japanese IT company NTT DATA Inc. said.

Despite worries around supply chains, the direction of travel is clear, CEO Abhijit Dubey said in an interview with the Reuters Global Markets Forum. 

"There is absolutely no doubt that in the medium- to long-term, AI is a massive secular trend," he said.

"Over the next 12 months, I think we're going to have a bit of a normalisation ... It'll be a short-lived bubble, and (AI) will come out of it stronger."

With demand for compute still running ahead of supply, "supply chains are almost spoken for" over the next two to three years, he said. Pricing power is already tilting toward chipmakers and hyperscalers, mirroring their stretched valuations in public markets, he added.

AI has triggered the biggest technological shake-up since the advent of the internet, fuelling trillions of dollars of investment and eye-watering equity gains. But it has caused shortages of memory chips, drawn regulatory scrutiny, and created growing unease over the future of work.

Dubey, who is also the firm's chief AI officer, said his company has begun rethinking recruitment strategies as AI reshapes labour markets.

"There will clearly be an impact ... Over a five- to 25-year horizon, there will likely be dislocation," he said. However, he added that NTT DATA continues to hire across locations.

Speakers at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York discussed how AI may upend work and job growth.

AI startup Writer Inc.'s CEO May Habib said customers are focused on slowing headcount growth.

"You close a customer, you get on the phone with the CEO to kick off the project, and it's like, 'Great, how soon can I whack 30% of my team?'," she said.

Still, a PwC survey of the global workforce released in November suggests the reality of generative AI usage has yet to match boardroom expectations. 

Daily use of GenAI remains "significantly lower" than widely touted by executives, PwC said, even as workers with AI skills commanded an average wage premium of 56% — more than double last year's figure.

PwC also flagged a widening skills gap, with about half of non-managers reporting access to training resources, compared with roughly three-quarters of senior executives.

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(Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Mumbai; Editing by Joe Bavier)