Finance
Sterling Steady With Focus on Inflation Data, Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 22, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 22, 2026
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Sterling held steady around $1.3516 as markets weighed a fragile Iran U.S. ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a rise in UK inflation to 3.3% in March, driven by surging fuel costs and Middle East conflict-related pressures.
Sterling Steady as UK Inflation Rises and Markets Eye Iran Ceasefire Talks
By Sophie Kiderlin
Market Reactions to Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions
Middle East Conflict and Ceasefire Developments
April 22 (Reuters) - The British pound was little changed on Wednesday as markets grappled with continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, even after U.S. President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran.
It was unclear whether Iran or Israel - Washington's ally in the two-month conflict - agreed with the extension, and the prospect of peace talks was uncertain as the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route remained blocked.
UK Inflation Data and Economic Outlook
Meanwhile, British inflation data showed early price pressures linked to the conflict. Consumer price inflation rose to an annual rate of 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February, in line with expectations.
Expert Insights on Inflation Trends
"In aggregate, inflation was a little bit higher than previously, but nothing aggressive," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura, adding that inflation readings were likely to climb further later in the year.
"I think sterling's going to look at this like, it could be better, it could be worse," he said.
The pound was last marginally higher at $1.3516, while the euro was little changed against sterling at 86.88 pence.
Interest Rate Expectations and Bank of England Policy
Markets have also been closely focused on interest-rate expectations after the Iran war pushed up inflation forecasts. Money markets were last pricing in one Bank of England rate hike this year, with some chance of a second.
The BoE is, however, widely expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets later this month, with markets assigning only about a 10% chance of a hike.
Policy Challenges and Economic Risks
Policymakers face "an unenviable balancing act," said Zara Nokes, global market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Risks to Inflation and Growth
"There are clear upside risks to inflation, particularly if households – who have become accustomed to persistent price pressures for some time – demand higher wages to restore their eroded purchasing power," she said, while noting that a weakening labour market and falling vacancies could hit consumption and amplify downside risks to growth.
The BoE will want to assess which of those risks dominates, Nokes added.
(Reporting by Sophie Kiderlin. Editing by Mark Potter)
Key Takeaways
- •UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March (from 3.0%) with motor fuel and energy costs pushing prices higher amid Iran‑linked disruption. Markets now anticipate one or possibly two BoE rate hikes, though an April hold remains likely.
- •The U.S. extended its ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, but ambiguity remains — Iran and Israel have not publicly agreed, the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, keeping energy supply risks elevated.
- •The Bank of England faces a delicate balance between rising inflation risks and a weakening economy, with weak labour data tempering wage‑pressure expectations even as energy‑driven inflation mounts.
Frequently Asked Questions about Sterling steady with focus on inflation data, Iran ceasefire uncertainty
1How did the British pound perform amid Middle East conflict uncertainty?
The British pound remained steady as markets reacted to ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and the extension of the Iran ceasefire.
2What did the latest UK inflation data show?
UK consumer price inflation rose to an annual rate of 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February, matching expectations.
3Are interest rates expected to change in the UK?
Money markets are currently pricing in one Bank of England rate hike this year, but the BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.
4What risks do policymakers face regarding inflation and growth?
Policymakers face the challenge of balancing upside risks to inflation with potential downside risks to growth from a weakening labour market.
