Finance
Standard chartered raises 2026 brent forecasts following middle east turmoil
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 3, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 3, 2026
Quick Summary
Standard Chartered raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecasts—from $63.50 to $70 on average—citing escalating Middle East conflict risks, especially disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures surged to the low $80s amid the turmoil.
Standard Chartered Ups 2026 Brent Forecasts Due to Middle East Conflict Risks
Standard Chartered Raises Brent Oil Price Forecasts Amid Geopolitical Tensions
March 3 (Reuters) - Standard Chartered hiked its 2026 Brent forecasts and sees asymmetric upside risk to its projections if the Middle East conflict escalates further and impairs production from Iran or other regional producers.
Revised Brent Price Projections for 2026
The bank raised its first-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $74 per barrel from $62, its second-quarter forecast to $67 from $63, and its 2026 average forecast to $70 from $63.50.
Market Reaction to Escalating Conflict
Brent futures soared about 6% to $82.38 a barrel as of 1749 GMT as the U.S.-Israel war against Iran widened, disrupting oil and gas fuel shipments in the Middle East and heightening fears of a prolonged conflict.
Regional Attacks and Supply Chain Disruptions
Israel also has attacked Lebanon, and Iran has responded with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes.
Factors Influencing Upward Price Risks
Standard Chartered said upward price risk had been dampened by perceptions of loose market balances, but added that the tightness of spare capacity and the concentration of transit routes had come into sharper focus and it expects this theme to persist.
OPEC Actions and Market Outlook
"The forward curve has strengthened notably, and OPEC has restarted its incremental production increases," the bank added.
OPEC+ agreed a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru)
Key Takeaways
- •Standard Chartered upgraded its Q1 2026 Brent forecast to $74 from $62, Q2 to $67 from $63, and the annual average to $70 from $63.50, warning of asymmetric upside risk if the conflict worsens
- •Brent futures jumped ~6% to around $82–83 per barrel as the U.S.–Israel war on Iran intensified, with attacks spreading to Lebanon and threats to energy infrastructure and shipping via the Strait of Hormuz
- •OPEC+ approved a modest April output increase of about 206,000 barrels per day, but analysts note that disruptions to chokepoints like the Strait could outweigh supply hikes
- •The conflict highlights the fragility of spare capacity and transit concentration; upward price risks persist despite perceptions of loose market balances
Frequently Asked Questions about Standard Chartered raises 2026 Brent forecasts following Middle East turmoil
1How does the Middle East conflict impact oil markets?
Escalating conflict disrupts oil and gas shipments, especially via the Strait of Hormuz, increasing price risks.
2What recent actions has OPEC+ taken?
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April.
3Which regions are most affected by Middle East oil disruptions?
Disruptions most affect transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil and LNG supply.
