Finance
Russian rouble seen falling sharply this year as oil sales fall and deficit rises
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 26, 2026
4 min readLast updated: February 26, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 26, 2026
4 min readLast updated: February 26, 2026
Russia’s rouble is seen weakening as oil revenues fall and more savings move into a yuan reserve, reducing FX support. A softer currency helps the budget and exporters but may raise inflation risks.
By Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The rouble is set to tumble by nearly a quarter this year after the government, faced with falling energy revenues, announced plans to save more money in a yuan-denominated fiscal reserve fund, a top Russian banker and analysts said on Thursday.
However, a weaker rouble, which has long been seen as overvalued, will bolster the state budget's revenues from oil sales, helping the government to deal with a growing deficit. It will also prop up revenues of exporting companies, a potential boost to Russia's flagging economic growth.
Russia's deteriorating finances, caused by Western pressure on its oil sales, may add some urgency to slow-moving, U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine, in which Washington is offering major economic incentives to both sides.
German Gref, the powerful CEO of Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, said the rouble has no chance to remain as strong as in 2025, when it rallied by 45% against the dollar. He said the currency could tumble by 23% from its current level of 77 to the dollar, to end the year around 100.
"This year, I don't see any chance of having such a strong rouble. It is counterproductive by all conceivable and inconceivable measures. It's counterintuitive, and everything else you can think of," Gref told a conference call after Sberbank's 2025 results announcement.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday the government would divert more money into the fiscal reserve fund to prevent its depletion. That implies reduced foreign currency sales by the state, a factor that has supported the rouble.
Operations by the government and the central bank currently account for over one-tenth of Russia's thin foreign currency market. The government and the central bank have been criticised for propping up the rouble.
"This means that the volumes of currency sales from the National Wealth Fund may decrease in the future, which in turn means that the support for the rouble from the budgetary mechanism will weaken," Alfa Bank analysts said. At the start of February, analysts in a Reuters poll saw the rouble at 88 to the dollar in 12 months.
'ROUTINE DIFFICULTIES'
Siluanov's announcement came a day after a late-night, hours-long meeting between President Vladimir Putin and top government and central bank officials on how to deal with the budget deficit and a sanctions-related fall in energy revenues.
The Kremlin said on Thursday the sharp fall in these revenues, which were down by 24% in 2025 and halved in February in year-on-year terms, as well as the growing budget deficit, were "routine difficulties" that could be fixed thanks to overall macroeconomic stability.
Sberbank released an optimistic economic outlook for 2026, projecting growth between 1% and 1.5%, above the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) estimate of 0.8%, with Gref arguing that a weaker rouble would prove an important factor.
"It is not possible to definitively assess the dynamics of economic growth for the full year in February. It will depend on a number of factors, including the dynamics of the rouble exchange rate," Gref said.
Russia's economic growth slowed sharply in 2025 due to prohibitive interest rates, which stalled investment. Gref said investment and growth would resume when the central bank's key interest rate falls to 12% from the current 15.5%.
The rallying rouble and the high key rate have helped the central bank bring inflation down.
Some central bank board members at a rate-setting meeting on February 13 warned that a weaker rouble and falling oil revenues created inflationary risks, according to the minutes, published on Thursday.
(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Gareth Jones)
The article examines forecasts for a weaker Russian rouble in 2026 as oil revenues fall, the budget deficit widens, and the state reduces FX market support via a yuan-focused reserve.
Lower energy revenues and plans to channel more funds into a yuan-denominated reserve mean fewer state FX sales. That, alongside a wider deficit, removes support that has helped stabilize the rouble.
Sberbank CEO German Gref and analysts cited in the report expect a softer rouble; Finance Minister Anton Siluanov outlined shifts in reserve policy impacting currency support.
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