Russian Central Bank Stresses Need for Honest Economic Data After Western Claims
Central Bank's Response to Data Manipulation Allegations
Governor Nabiullina's Call for Transparency
MOSCOW, April 28 (Reuters) - Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina called for honesty in economic data on Tuesday, after Western intelligence agencies made allegations about the quality of Russian data and hinted at manipulation by the authorities.
Public Trust and Inflation Figures
Many Russians mistrust official data, as seen in the central bank's own monthly polls on observed inflation and inflationary expectations. The observed inflation rate stood at 12.9% in April - more than double the officially reported 6%.
"It is very important that people are not afraid to speak the truth, to present an accurate picture, whether good or bad, but an accurate picture, because the quality and reliability of data are very important for decision-making," Nabiullina told a banking conference.
Western Intelligence Agencies' Claims
Germany's BND Accusations
In March, Germany's intelligence service BND accused Moscow of hiding the true cost of its war in Ukraine, saying Russia's budget deficit in 2025 was 40% bigger than officially stated, or more than 2.36 trillion roubles ($30.5 billion).
Swedish Intelligence Observations
Swedish military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson told the Financial Times in an interview this month that Russia has been manipulating data in order to convince the West that its economy is successfully resisting sanctions, estimating that real inflation was closer to 15% than the officially reported 6%.
Lack of Disclosed Sources and Official Response
Neither the BND nor Nilsson disclosed their sources, and Russian economic officials have made no official comments on their allegations.
Russian Data Practices Amid Conflict
Confidentiality and Reporting of Economic Indicators
Since launching its military campaign in Ukraine, Russia has made some data confidential, especially in areas linked to foreign trade. But it has been regularly reporting key indicators like GDP, inflation and unemployment.
Economic Performance and Budget Deficit
Official data in Russia has painted a bleak picture this year, with the economy contracting 1.8% in the first two months and the federal budget deficit exceeding the government's target.
Reliance on Official Data by Analysts
Use by Banks and International Organizations
Analysts with Russian and international banks as well as international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund use data provided by Russian official institutions, although the IMF has suspended its annual country missions to Russia.
Importance for Corporate Sector and Equity Market
The central bank has also said providing accurate data in the corporate sector is essential for the functioning of Russia's equity market, which, in the absence of Western investment, is seen as one of the few sources of capital for firms.
(Reporting by Moscow Newsroom; Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
