Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on November 27, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
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Russia's industrial output surged in October, driven by defense manufacturing, marking the largest increase since December.
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Growth in manufacturing sectors related to defence was behind a surprise spike in Russia's industrial output in October, which was significantly above expectations and the biggest since December, analysts said on Thursday.
Industrial output rose 3.1% in October year-on-year and 3% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, significantly above analysts' expectations of 0.3% year-on-year. That followed a 0.3% increase in September.
"In processing sectors, the largest segment, growth was still driven by the engineering industries, which are largely oriented towards defense," said Denis Popov from PSB bank, which is focused on financing the military sectors.
The production of transport vehicles and equipment, including military combat vehicles, aircraft, ships and railway locomotives, accelerated in October to 41.0% year-on-year from 6% in September, according to the state statistics agency.
The production of finished metal products, including weapons and ammunition, increased by 19.4% after a decrease of 1.6% in September. The decline in passenger car production accelerated to 46.7% from 1.7% in September.
Renaissance Capital analyst Andrei Melashenko noted that growth in areas oriented towards government orders has returned to the average values observed since 2023. Defence procurement is done through government orders.
He estimated growth in sectors such as finished metal, electronic and optical products at 22.7% year-on-year, from 4.4% in September.
The analysts did not say what the reasons were for the spike in October. Military procurement data in Russia is confidential.
Manufacturing output accelerated to 4.5% year-on-year in October from 0.4% in September, while mineral extraction increased by 1.3% after 0.2% growth the previous month.
Russia's economic growth is set to slow to about 1% this year from 4.3% in 2024, mainly due to the central bank's policy of fighting inflation.
In the first 10 months of the year, industrial production grew by 1.0%, compared to a 5.2% growth in January-October 2024, with output falling across most civilian sectors.
The economy ministry cut the industrial output growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5% from 2.6%. It grew by 5.6% last year.
(Reporting by Darya Korsuinskaya; writing by Gleb Bryanski, editing by Ed Osmond)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time frame, often used to gauge economic performance.
Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over time, typically measured as the percentage increase in real GDP.
Manufacturing is the process of converting raw materials into finished goods through the use of labor, machines, tools, and chemical or biological processing.
Investment refers to the allocation of resources, usually money, to generate income or profit. It can involve purchasing assets, stocks, or funding projects.
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