Oil settles down 2% on weaker Chinese demand, uncertainty over Fed rate cut

By Georgina McCartney

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled down more than 2% on Friday as investors fretted about weaker Chinese demand and a potential slowing in the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Brent crude futures settled down $1.52, or 2.09%, to $71.04 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled down $1.68, or 2.45%, at $67.02.

For the week, Brent fell around 4%, while WTI declined around 5%.

China’s oil refiners in October processed 4.6% less crude than a year earlier because of plant closures and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.

The country’s factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating, adding to investors’ concerns over the economic health of the world’s largest crude importer.

“The headwinds out of China are persisting, and whatever stimulus they put forward could be damaged by a new round of tariffs by the Trump administration,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end China’s most-favored-nation trading status and impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% – much higher than those imposed during his first term.

Goldman Sachs Research economists have modestly lowered their 2025 growth forecast for China, the bank said in a note, following on expectations of significant tariff increases under Trump.

“However, we would likely make larger downgrades if the trade war were to escalate further,” Goldman Sachs Research chief economist, Jan Hatzius said in the note.

Oil prices also fell this week as major forecasters indicated slowing global demand growth.

Global oil demand is getting weaker,” said International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol on Friday at the COP29 summit.

We have been seeing this for some time and this is mainly driven by the slowing Chinese economic growth and the increasing penetration of electric cars around the world.

The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.

OPEC, meanwhile, cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and 2025, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions.

FED RATE CUT IN THE BALANCE

U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting the economy kicked off the fourth quarter on a strong note.

“The economic data this morning was strong and notable so that is keeping things somewhat stable with regard to what the U.S. demand picture should be,” Again Capital’s Kilduff said.

The data added to the debate among Federal Reserve policymakers over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts as investors further downgraded their expectations for a rate reduction at the central bank’s December meeting.

Lower interest rates typically spur economic growth, aiding fuel demand.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, however, did not rule out a December rate cut when speaking on Bloomberg’s television channel.

Looking at those numbers, there is nothing forcing the Fed to get real crazy about it, I think the odds for a 25 basis rate cut for December have dropped to between high 50s-60%,” said chief economist at Matador Economics, Tim Snyder.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we do not see anything in December, and have to wait and see how the year ends,” Snyder added.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Robert Harvey and Enes Tunagur in London, Nicole Jao in New York and Gabrielle Ng in Singapore; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Marguerita Choy and Andrea Ricci)