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    1. Home
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    3. >Oil set for steepest weekly gain since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine
    Finance

    Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Gain Since Russia's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

    Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®

    Posted on March 6, 2026

    3 min read

    Last updated: April 1, 2026

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    Tags:FinanceMarketsCommodities

    Quick Summary

    Oil prices are on track for their largest weekly increase since early March 2022—Brent up ~17–20%, WTI up ~20–25%—driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from Middle East conflict and heightened supply fears.

    Global Banking & Finance Awards 2026 — Call for Entries

    Iran war sends US crude futures up 12% a barrel

    US-Iran Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge

    By Erwin Seba

    HOUSTON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures climbed 12% on Friday due to disruptions to global oil supplies because of the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

    Crude Price Movements

    Brent crude futures settled at $92.69 a barrel, up $7.28, or 8.52%. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) finished at $90.90 a barrel, up $9.89, or 12.21%.

    In one week, WTI rose 35.63% and Brent climbed 27%, the biggest weekly gains since the COVID-19 pandemic in Spring 2020.

    WTI vs Brent Performance

    For the second consecutive day, U.S. crude futures rose more than Brent futures as refiners worldwide scrambled to buy alternative crude to plug the gap left by disruption to Middle East supplies.

    "Refiners and trading houses are searching for alternative barrels, and the U.S. is the largest producer," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS.

    Factors Behind the Divergence

    Several factors contributed to the divergence in gains between WTI and Brent on Friday, said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil analytics at Rystad Energy.

    High levels of refinery production due to favorable margins and strong arbs to Europe accounted for the split between the two contracts, Shah said.

    Potential for Crude Over $100 a Barrel

    CRUDE OVER $100 A BARREL?

    Qatar's energy minister told the Financial Times he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel, according to an interview published on Friday. 

    "The worst-case scenario is developing before our eyes," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said. "I think the forecasts of $100 a barrel all are to come to true."

    Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure

    Oil started its steep rally after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran last Saturday, prompting Iran to stop tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oil supply equal to about 20% of world demand usually passes through this waterway each day. With the Strait now effectively closed for seven days, that means about 140 million barrels of oil - equal to about 1.4 days of global demand - has been unable to reach the market. 

    The conflict has spread across the Middle East's key energy-producing areas, disrupting output and forcing shutdowns of refineries and liquefied natural gas plants.

    Market Reactions and Political Responses

    "Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher," Staunovo said. "The belief in the market was that Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn't want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk."

    U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that he was not concerned about rising U.S. gasoline prices linked to the conflict, saying "if they rise, they rise."

    The possibility that the U.S. Treasury Department might take action to combat rising energy costs briefly pushed prices down by more than 1% early on Friday.

    The Treasury on Thursday granted waivers for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil. The first waivers went to Indian refiners, who have since bought millions of barrels of Russian crude.

    Contributors and Editing

    (Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Siddarth Cavale in New York, Anna Hirtenstein in London, Helen Clark in Perth and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Kevin Buckland, Mark Potter, Louise Heavens, David Gregorio, Will Dunham, Diane Craft, Simon Webb)

    References

    • Stocks drop after oil spikes to its highest price since the summer of 2024
    • Oil price heading for biggest weekly gain in four years, as strait of Hormuz traffic grinds to a halt – business live | Business | The Guardian
    • Brent crude oil crosses $85, highest since July 2024 amid Strait of Hormuz supply route disruption - The Times of India

    Table of Contents

    • US-Iran Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge
    • Crude Price Movements

    Key Takeaways

    • •Brent crude and WTI are poised for their steepest weekly gains since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with Brent rising ~17–20% and WTI ~20–25% this week (apnews.com).
    • •Supply disruptions from Iran‑US‑Israel strikes and effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—handling about one‑fifth of global oil—are fueling the rally and pushing Brent to its highest levels since mid‑2024 ().

    Frequently Asked Questions about Oil set for steepest weekly gain since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine

    1Why are oil prices experiencing their steepest weekly gain since 2022?

    Oil prices surged due to conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant supply constraints.

    2How high could oil prices go according to analysts?
    WTI vs Brent Performance
  • Factors Behind the Divergence
  • Potential for Crude Over $100 a Barrel
  • Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure
  • Market Reactions and Political Responses
  • Contributors and Editing
  • theguardian.com
  • •Analysts warn the crisis could escalate prices beyond $100–$150 per barrel if the conflict prolongs, with refuging geopolitical risks and waivers for Russian oil complicating market balances (timesofindia.indiatimes.com).
  • Qatar's energy minister indicated oil prices could reach $150 per barrel if Gulf energy producers halt exports.

    3What impact does the Strait of Hormuz have on global oil supply?

    The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global daily oil supply, so blockages there significantly impact global energy markets.

    4What measures is the U.S. considering to address rising oil prices?

    The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce measures to combat rising energy prices, though using Treasury to trade oil futures has been ruled out for now.

    5How does the current oil price spike compare to past shocks?

    Although crude surged almost 20% this month, the price is only slightly above its four-year average, unlike the 2022 surge above $100 a barrel following Russia's attack on Ukraine.

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