Oil set for steepest weekly gain since russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine

Iran war sends US crude futures up 12% a barrel

US-Iran Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge

By Erwin Seba

HOUSTON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures climbed 12% on Friday due to disruptions to global oil supplies because of the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Crude Price Movements

Brent crude futures settled at $92.69 a barrel, up $7.28, or 8.52%. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) finished at $90.90 a barrel, up $9.89, or 12.21%.

In one week, WTI rose 35.63% and Brent climbed 27%, the biggest weekly gains since the COVID-19 pandemic in Spring 2020.

WTI vs Brent Performance

For the second consecutive day, U.S. crude futures rose more than Brent futures as refiners worldwide scrambled to buy alternative crude to plug the gap left by disruption to Middle East supplies.

"Refiners and trading houses are searching for alternative barrels, and the U.S. is the largest producer," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS.

Factors Behind the Divergence

Several factors contributed to the divergence in gains between WTI and Brent on Friday, said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil analytics at Rystad Energy.

High levels of refinery production due to favorable margins and strong arbs to Europe accounted for the split between the two contracts, Shah said.

Potential for Crude Over $100 a Barrel

CRUDE OVER $100 A BARREL?

Qatar's energy minister told the Financial Times he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel, according to an interview published on Friday. 

"The worst-case scenario is developing before our eyes," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said. "I think the forecasts of $100 a barrel all are to come to true."

Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure

Oil started its steep rally after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran last Saturday, prompting Iran to stop tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil supply equal to about 20% of world demand usually passes through this waterway each day. With the Strait now effectively closed for seven days, that means about 140 million barrels of oil - equal to about 1.4 days of global demand - has been unable to reach the market. 

The conflict has spread across the Middle East's key energy-producing areas, disrupting output and forcing shutdowns of refineries and liquefied natural gas plants.

Market Reactions and Political Responses

"Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher," Staunovo said. "The belief in the market was that Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn't want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk."

U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that he was not concerned about rising U.S. gasoline prices linked to the conflict, saying "if they rise, they rise."

The possibility that the U.S. Treasury Department might take action to combat rising energy costs briefly pushed prices down by more than 1% early on Friday.

The Treasury on Thursday granted waivers for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil. The first waivers went to Indian refiners, who have since bought millions of barrels of Russian crude.

Contributors and Editing

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Siddarth Cavale in New York, Anna Hirtenstein in London, Helen Clark in Perth and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Kevin Buckland, Mark Potter, Louise Heavens, David Gregorio, Will Dunham, Diane Craft, Simon Webb)