Oil Prices Surge 3% Amid Venezuela Developments and Supply Concerns

Impact of Venezuela and Global Supply on Oil Prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed over 3% on Thursday after two straight days of declines, settling at a two-week high as investors assessed developments in Venezuela and worried about supplies from Russia, Iraq and Iran.

Brent futures rose $2.03, or 3.4%, to settle at $61.99 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.77, or 3.2%, to settle at $57.76.

That was the highest close for Brent since December 24.

Venezuela's Oil Situation

Foreign embassies in Venezuela are beginning to arrange visits for next week that will include representatives for U.S. and European oil companies, two sources told Reuters, following Washington's announcement of a $2 billion oil deal and the supply of U.S. goods to the South American country.

The U.S. seized two Venezuela-linked oil tankers in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, with one sailing under Russia's flag, as part of U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive push to dictate oil flows in the Americas and force Venezuela's socialist government to become an ally.

After capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military raid on Caracas on Saturday, the U.S. has been escalating its blockade of vessels that are under sanctions and traveling to and from the South American country, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

PRICES REVERT TO PRE-ATTACK LEVELS

"The complex is rebounding, with the crude benchmarks back to about levels of last Friday's close prior to the U.S. removal of Maduro," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

"The fact that this major development is having little impact on the energy complex is not surprising since the arrival of a meaningful amount of Venezuelan crude into the (U.S.) Gulf Coast region could be years away," Ritterbusch said.

Concerns in Russia, Iraq, and Iran

The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to advance a resolution that would bar President Donald Trump from taking further military action against Venezuela without congressional authorization, even as Trump said U.S. oversight of the troubled nation could last years.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there was room to balance roles for both the U.S. and China in Venezuela to allow for commerce, but that Washington would not allow Beijing to have major control over the South American country.

In an interview on Fox Business Network, Wright also said he expected to see Chevron quickly grow its activities in Venezuela, with other U.S. oil majors ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil also looking to play a constructive role.

The Trump administration has invited the bosses of commodity trading houses Vitol and Trafigura to the White House on Friday for talks on marketing Venezuelan oil, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

India's Reliance Industries, operator of the world's largest refining complex, said it will consider buying Venezuelan oil if permitted for sale to non-U.S. buyers. Venezuela produces about 1% of the world's oil supply.

RUSSIA, IRAQ AND IRAN

Russia's Drone Attack

A Russia-bound oil tanker suffered a drone attack in the Black Sea that prompted it to request Turkish Coast Guard assistance and divert from its course, according to a notice by Lloyd's List Intelligence and a separate maritime security source on Thursday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday the text of a bilateral security guarantee between Kyiv and Washington was "essentially ready" to be finalised with Trump. 

U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Wednesday that Trump will allow a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting countries doing business with Russia, the second-biggest oil producer in the world behind the U.S., to move forward in Congress.

Iraq's Nationalization Plans

Iraq's cabinet has approved plans to nationalize operations at the West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the world's largest, as the government looks to avert disruptions stemming from U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian stakeholder Lukoil.

Iran's Economic Challenges

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian warned domestic suppliers against hoarding or overpricing goods, state media reported on Thursday, as Tehran rolls out high-stakes subsidy reforms during nationwide protests against economic hardship.

"Iran has a long history of protests, and there is no sign that the regime is on the verge of collapse. But depending on how the situation evolves, Iranian oil exports - equating to 2% of global supply - could be at risk," said Pavel Molchanov, investment strategy analyst at Raymond James.

A nationwide internet blackout was reported in Iran on Thursday, internet monitoring group NetBlocks said, as protests over economic hardships continued around the country.

Iraq and Iran are among the biggest oil producers in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York and Enes Tunagur in London; Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by David Goodman, Kirsten Donovan, Rod Nickel, Paul Simao and David Gregorio)